An Associated Press tally shows at least 510 Iraqi civilians and security force members were killed in July, a 75 percent drop from the 2,021 deaths in the same period last year as the U.S. troop buildup aimed at quelling rampant Sunni-Shiite violence was nearing its peak.
The drastic decline in violence over the past year has led to increasing optimism among American commanders, who have been wary of declaring success after past lulls proved short-lived. It also has become a key issue in the U.S. presidential campaign.
"The progress is still reversible," President Bush said Thursday in Washington. But he said a new "degree of durability in gains" should permit him to announce further U.S. troop reductions later this year.
The last of five combat brigades sent as part of the so-called surge returned home in July, leaving about 145,000 U.S. troops in Iraq. That is still higher than the roughly 130,000-135,000 who were here before the troop increase.
But thch day compared to 65 each day in the same month last year. It was the third consecutive month this year with relatively lower violence levels for Iraqi civilians.
The change is especially evident at the central morgue in Baghdad, a brick building in a mainly Shiite neighborhood. At the height of the bloodshed, the facility was overwhelmed with the delivery of dozens of bodies on a daily basis. Relatives were afraid to collect the bodies because militiamen controlled the area.
Only 10 to 15 bodies are now received by the morgue each day, down from an average peak of 125, according to the Health Ministry's general-inspector, Adel Muhsin. He said some of the deaths were from natural causes.
"The situation is better now in the morgue," he said. "We received far fewer bodies because of the improved security situation. The current rate is close to any normal country."
Violence has been slower to decline in northern Iraq.
In Mosul on Thursday, a suicide car bomber killed three policemen and a judge died of gunshot wounds. Four bullet-riddled bodies, including three women, also were found in the city a day after an al-Qaida front group warned it was launching a new campaign of violence there.
Nineveh province, of which Mosul is the capital, had 25 percent of the civilian deaths for July, a significantly higher rate than over the past year.
The U.S.-backed Iraqi military, meanwhile, pressed forward with a new operation meant to rout insurgents from rural safe havens in Diyala province south of Mosul and northeast of Baghdad.
Insurgents clashed with U.S.-allied Sunni Arab fighters and killed one of them near the village of Waib, south of the provincial capital of Baqouba.
But nearly 200 suspected militants have been captured since the operation began on Tuesday, Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Mohammed al-Askari said.
AP Television News footage on Thursday showed Iraqi troops transferring a handful of detainees in the back of a truck in Diyala. One of the soldiers was seen feeding a slice of orange to a blindfolded captive as others gave them water.
Many Iraqis also were hopeful the low levels of violence could be sustained.
"I am optimistic that the worst has passed and we will not see many bodies in the city anymore. The Iraqi people are no longer interested in continuing the cycle of violence," said Qais Rahim, a 30-year-old Shiite merchant.
But others echoed fears that the relative calm merely reflected a decision by militants to lay low and wait for a chance to regroup.
"The number of bodies has declined, but I think this is a temporary calm because there are sleeper cells ready to resume their killings anytime," said Mustafa Hussein, a 33-year-old engineer from the mainly Sunni Baghdad neighborhood of Azamiyah. "Also, there are militiamen who have fled the country and might return as soon as possible."
