Or maybe a little of all three?
Lots of questions - without hard-evidence answers - after last night's victory of Republican Bob Turner - a political novice - over Democrat David Weprin, a New York Assemblyman and former City Councilman. The special election was held because Anthony Weiner resigned after a "sexting" scandal earlier this year.
Not surprising that Republicans are trying to use this as political fodder. Not surprising that the White House and the Dems are trying to downplay any broader significance.
The truth is likely somewhere in the middle of all the spin.
Republicans certainly smell political blood in the water. But the truth is that this district, despite the nifty headline that the 9th District hasn't gone Republican in about a century, is a political hodgepodge - with more Republicans than most other New York City Congressional districts.
President Obama, who won New York City handily in 2008 - with 80 percent-plus of the vote in Manhattan and the Bronx - beat John McCain with just 55 percent of the vote in the 9th District. So a slight drop in Obama's popularity - and he's certainly dropped more than slightly - would easily translate into trouble for Democrats in a district that is already a toss up.
But Democrats also seem wrong to put blinders on about the bigger implications of this loss. Another Congressional seat has been lost - and that's always a big deal. And, sure this seat might be redistricted away, but maybe it won't be.
Tonight at 11, we'll have reaction to the election - and look at what it means for Pres. Obama.
Also at 11, we're following a horrible story on Staten Island, where a 2 year old girl is in the hospital after she was hit in the face by a stray bullet.
And if you're looking to save money, our story on how to negotiate with your health care provider could work wonders. Consumer Reports shows us how.
We'll also have any breaking news of the night, plus Meteorologist Lee Goldberg's AccuWeather forecast, and Rob Powers with the night's sports. I hope you can join Sade Baderinwa and me, tonight at 11.