The Realities of Trump's Economic Policies

ByCANDACE SMITH ABCNews logo
Tuesday, August 9, 2016

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump Monday laid out his most detailed policy proposal to date. In it, he outlined his plan to address the country's economic future, adding specifics to the plan he released in September.

Not unlike any presidential candidate, Trump declared that his plan would solve the economy's problems, proposing tax cuts to try to stimulate growth, for instance. "These reforms will offer the biggest tax revolution since the Reagan tax reform," he said.

ABC News looked to see what effects some of his proposals could possibly have on U.S. families and the economy.

What Could Happen to the Debt

A reduction in the national debt is a core issue for conservatives. Trump, in his remarks to the Detroit Economic Club, only mentioned debt once, using the issue to criticize the policies of President Obama.

"Their policies produced 1.2 percent growth, the weakest so-called recovery since the Great Depression," he said. "It's been talked about all over, it's a disaster. And a doubling of the national debt during the Obama years."

But his own plan calls for huge tax cuts and spending increases. The nonpartisan Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center looked at the plan released last fall and concluded that it could add up to $9.5 trillion over a decade.

William Gale of the Brookings Institution says this most recent iteration of Trump's plan doesn't change the center's estimate.

"I don't see anything that's going to raise much revenue. He mentioned carried interest but that raises tiny, tiny amounts of revenue and the things we're talking about are major reductions in taxes," said Gale, a former senior economist for the Council of Economic Advisers under President George H.W. Bush.

Would Middle-Class Families Actually Get a Tax Cut?

In Trump's remarks, he said that everyone would see a tax cut.

"I am proposing an across-the-board income tax reduction, especially for middle-income Americans. This will lead to millions of new and really good-paying jobs," he said. "The rich will pay their fair share but no one will pay so much that it destroys jobs, or undermines our ability, as a nation to compete."

Trump is proposing a large cut in taxes for middle-class families, which he hopes would stimulate the economy enough to create livable jobs. But many economists are skeptical.

"The plan has to be paid for," Gale told ABC News. "Because the plan is so regressive, any reasonable way of paying for it will burden the middle class. My guess is that after the tax cut plus financing, the middle class will end up worse off."

Would His Plan for Child Care Help Families?

In this plan, Trump included a progressive sounding tenet; the notion of making child care tax-exempt, an idea his daughter floated during the Republican National Convention last month.

"My plan will also help reduce the cost of child care by allowing parents to fully deduct the average cost of child care spending from their taxes," he said.

He's right; his plan would likely help middle-upper class families who itemize their income. But for low-income families struggling with health care costs, this exemption likely wouldn't help them at all. About 45 percent of U.S. households pay no federal income tax, and not paying federal income tax means that these households won't benefit at all from a tax deduction.

"It's going to be upper-middle-class households who will benefit from that," Gale says. "They have tax liability, and they have income to deduct."

Why Abolish the Estate Tax?

The nominee also touted his plan to repeal the estate tax, commonly known as the death tax.

"Finally, no family will have to pay the death tax," he said. "American workers have paid taxes their whole lives, and they should not be taxed again at death. It is just plain wrong, and most people agree with that."

The estate tax is a tax on transferred money and property after death, and is typically paid only by the very wealthy - families in Trump's tax bracket. Fewer than 1 percent of estates pay the tax.

The average U.S. family would not benefit from abolishing this tax.

"A very tiny fraction of all people who die pay the estate tax," Gale said. "Trump very much tried to frame it as a tax on families, but it's a fraction of 1 percent of families that pay the estate tax."

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