NHL Power Rankings: How all 31 teams did against sportsbook over/unders

ByEmily Kaplan ESPN logo
Thursday, April 4, 2019

With just a few days left of the regular season, it's time to check in on who met expectations, who exceeded them and, of course, who were our biggest disappointments.

For this week's Power Rankings -- voted on, as always, by ESPN's panel of experts -- we looked at how teams fared compared to their preseason projected standings point totals from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

How we rank: The ESPN hockey editorial staff submits polls ranking teams 1-31, and those results are tabulated to the list featured here. Teams are rated through Tuesday night's games, taking into account overall record, recent success and other factors, such as injuries.

1. Tampa Bay Lightning

Previous ranking: 1

Preseason over/under: 107.5

Points on April 4: 124

Even good teams can overachieve. Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point have combined for the most points (312) by a trio since the 2000-01 Penguins (Jaromir Jagr, Alex Kovalev, Martin Straka).

2. Calgary Flames

Previous ranking: 3

Preseason over/under: 93.5

Points on April 4: 107

The Flames' goaltending didn't derail them, and their offense was far more explosive than Vegas expected, even without significant contributions from their big free-agent signing, former Golden Knight James Neal.

3. Boston Bruins

Previous ranking: 2

Preseason over/under: 102.5

Points on April 4: 105

Boston finished right about even with expectations. Much credit must go to coach Bruce Cassidy, who had to juggle plenty of injuries, especially an oft-depleted blue line.

4. Washington Capitals

Previous ranking: 4

Preseason over/under: 97.5

Points on April 4: 102

Perhaps Vegas was swayed by how hard the Caps partied after clinching the Cup in the Sin City, and during the summer that followed. It's not the first time -- nor will it be the last time -- someone underestimates Alex Ovechkin's resilience.

5. Toronto Maple Leafs

Previous ranking: 7

Preseason over/under: 106.5

Points on April 4: 99

The Leafs are going to fall short, and some uninspired hockey down the stretch hasn't helped. Now that the inevitable first-round series against Boston is cemented, they better shape up fast.

6. New York Islanders

Previous ranking: 11

Preseason over/under: 82.5

Points on April 4: 99

The Islanders are going to finish as this season's biggest overachievers, and the most noticeable difference is defensive structure and goaltending. And maybe that chip on their shoulder.

7. San Jose Sharks

Previous ranking: 5

Preseason over/under: 101.5

Points on April 4: 97

The Sharks won't hit the over, and they have played some unexciting hockey since being locked into the No. 2 seed. We remain especially concerned about their goaltending in the playoffs.

8. Pittsburgh Penguins

Previous ranking: 9

Preseason over/under: 102.5

Points on April 4: 97

No matter how many roller coasters the Penguins ride during the season, they always seem to end up here: looking dangerous when it matters, poised for another long playoff run.

9. Winnipeg Jets

Previous ranking: 6

Preseason over/under: 106.5

Points on April 4: 96

Without their top two defensemen for long stretches, and thanks to a slump from sniper Patrik Laine, the Jets never fully clicked this season.

10. Nashville Predators

Previous ranking: 8

Preseason over/under: 105.5

Points on April 4: 96

The Preds won't reach above the 105-point mark for a few reasons, although Viktor Arvidsson wasn't one of them. Arvidsson (33 goals in 56 games) almost became the franchise's first 40-goal scorer. If only he'd been healthy all season.

11. Vegas Golden Knights

Previous ranking: 10

Preseason over/under: 101.5

Points on April 4: 93

Imagine that: Vegas was wrong about Vegas ... again. When the Golden Misfits shocked us all last season, the bar might have been set too high for an encore, even though they still look quite good.

12. St. Louis Blues

Previous ranking: 12

Preseason over/under: 96.5

Points on April 4: 95

At first it looked as if the Blues would hit way under. (They were dead last in the NHL on Jan. 3.) Their pace over the past two-plus months would have put them way over. Instead, they finish right around where Vegas expected.

13. Columbus Blue Jackets

Previous ranking: 14

Preseason over/under: 97.5

Points on April 4: 94

So it looked as if the oddsmakers correctly projected the Blue Jackets as a borderline playoff team. Few predicted how big the stakes would be right now for GM Jarmo Kekalainen.

14. Carolina Hurricanes

Previous ranking: 13

Preseason over/under: 85.5

Points on April 4: 95

The "bunch of jerks" exceeded expectations, and one of the biggest reasons is goaltending. Stepping in for Scott Darling, Petr Mrazek and Curtis McElhinney have been sensational.

15. Montreal Canadiens

Previous ranking: 15

Preseason over/under: 80.5

Points on April 4: 94

The Canadiens will finish more than double digits above their projected point total. It helps that new forwardsMax Domi and Tomas Tatar overperformed compared to their previous stops.

16. Dallas Stars

Previous ranking: 16

Preseason over/under: 94.5

Points on April 4: 91

The Stars fended off some early-season drama and adjusted to yet another new coach, finishing just about at expectation level. Goaltending kept Dallas afloat when its offense (fourth worst in the league) sputtered.

17. Colorado Avalanche

Previous ranking: 17

Preseason over/under: 89.5

Points on April 4: 88

Few teams have it better this season than the Avs, who slide into the playoffs with a point total in the low 90s -- and still have the highest probability of winning the Jack Hughes sweepstakes thanks to owning Ottawa's draft pick.

18. Arizona Coyotes

Previous ranking: 18

Preseason over/under: 81.5

Points on April 4: 84

The Coyotes exceeded expectations and went on an improbable playoff push through March. The magic seemed to run out at the end, but what a ride it was.

19. Minnesota Wild

Previous ranking: 20

Preseason over/under: 95.5

Points on April 4: 83

The Wild are missing the playoffs, and finishing below expectations, because they couldn't score enough goals. GM Paul Fenton began shaking things up at the trade deadline, but by then it was too late. Expect that process to continue this offseason.

20. Florida Panthers

Previous ranking: 22

Preseason over/under: 94.5

Points on April 4: 84

The Panthers might finish as low as double digits under their projected point total. You knew it was bad when the rumblings about whom they'd target in free agency began ... in February.

21. Philadelphia Flyers

Previous ranking: 19

Preseason over/under: 97.5

Points on April 4: 82

If the Flyers didn't have such a poor start -- and have to cycle through so many goaltenders before calling upCarter Hart-- they might have hit their mark. That's a lot of ifs, though.

22. Chicago Blackhawks

Previous ranking: 21

Preseason over/under: 85.5

Points on April 4: 82

Inspired performances by the stars -- Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews and we'll now include Alex DeBrincat on that list -- kept the Hawks afloat. A leaky defense derailed them.

23. Vancouver Canucks

Previous ranking: 24

Preseason over/under: 77.5

Points on April 4: 80

The Canucks hit the over, and the success can largely be pinpointed to one transcendent player: rookie Elias Pettersson, the inevitable Calder Trophy winner.

24. Edmonton Oilers

Previous ranking: 23

Preseason over/under: 89.5

Points on April 4: 77

With the Oilers currently 12.5 points below the line with two games to go, you have to feel for a team that has two 100-point stars in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl ... and a whole lot of uncertainty surrounding them.

25. Anaheim Ducks

Previous ranking: 26

Preseason over/under: 94.5

Points on April 4: 76

The Ducks became cellar dwellers this season, finishing well below their line, because their defense was porous (and they are getting old, and slow, and John Gibson can shoulder only so much).

26. New York Rangers

Previous ranking: 27

Preseason over/under: 75.5

Points on April 4: 75

This is exactly how the Blueshirts were supposed to finish. They look like a team that has fully embarked on the rebuild and is eager to use five draft picks over the first two rounds in June.

27. Detroit Red Wings

Previous ranking: 30

Preseason over/under: 75.5

Points on April 4: 74

Because "the team is being taken over by the young people" (those are GM Ken Holland's words), the Red Wings are going to go through some growing pains. Such as finishing with fewer than 80 points, as expected.

28. Buffalo Sabres

Previous ranking: 25

Preseason over/under: 80.5

Points on April 4: 72

Remember the 10-game winning streak that catapulted the Sabres to first place on Nov. 27? Since then, the Sabres have only 14 wins. Even the Senators have more (18)!

29. New Jersey Devils

Previous ranking: 28

Preseason over/under: 91.5

Points on April 4: 70

The Devils were bound to regress, but this was a steep decline. If you have any doubts that Taylor Hall should have won MVP last season, this 20-point drop (as Hall missed a large chunk of the season) should quash them.

30. Los Angeles Kings

Previous ranking: 29

Preseason over/under: 92.5

Points on April 4: 69

Things got out of hand quickly for the Kings, and the relationship with last year's prized free agent Ilya Kovalchuk already needs to be repaired. Los Angeles could finish more than 20 points below expectations.

31. Ottawa Senators

Previous ranking: 31

Preseason over/under: 69.5

Points on April 4: 64

Clinching last place in the NHL, the marathon season of gloom -- doesn't Uber-gate feel like years ago? -- finished even bleaker than anyone could have predicted.