Ryan Fitzpatrick could be a short-term steal for the Jets

The New York Jets rank 30th in passer rating and 29th in Total QBR over the past five seasons, counting playoffs. And an ugly situation became downright bizarre two weeks ago when a teammate slugged projected starter Geno Smith, leaving the third-year pro with a broken jaw.

Analysts correctly pointed out that Smith's unfortunate injury probably actually upgraded the team's quarterback situation by pushing veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick into the starting lineup. That line of thinking said more about Smith's futility -- he was 32nd and last among NFL starters when ESPN surveyed 35 coaches and personnel evaluators -- than it said about Fitzpatrick's excellence. But in the wacky world of NFL economics, Fitzpatrick has to rank among the great values in the league this season. The evidence suggests he's a player the Jets can win with as long as their defense returns to the form it showed before the past couple of seasons.

As the chart shows, Fitzpatrick's production over the past five seasons lines up almost exactly with the production over the same span for veteran starters playing on much more expensive contracts. Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer and Andy Dalton average $16.87 million in annual salary compensation, compared to $3.625 million for Fitzpatrick, but there is virtually no difference between those players' production. All have completed about 61 percent of their passes. They have averaged right around 7.0 yards per pass attempt with roughly 100 touchdowns and 72 interceptions. Their passer ratings are in the low 80s. Their Total QBR scores are right around 50, the level associated with average play.

Cutler and Palmer have first-round draft pedigrees. They're more gifted than the other two from a physical standpoint, and sometimes that translates to the field. But the way a quarterback is perceived often has much to do with the team around him. Middling quarterbacks paired with elite defenses will win games and sign contracts worth more than $15 million per season. Cutler, Palmer and Dalton prove that point.

Palmer in particular has played at a higher level recently, ranking ninth in QBR (67.6) since Week 8 of the 2013 season. He has a 13-2 starting record over that span. Why the change? Palmer is talented, for one, but there is more to the equation. Team situations matter greatly for quarterbacks. Palmer has gone from playing in a terribly dysfunctional environment (Oakland in 2011-12) to playing in Arizona for Bruce Arians, one of the game's top offensive coaches. The Cardinals have ranked fifth in defensive expected points added (EPA) during that 13-2 starting streak for Palmer (the Raiders' defense was 31st when Palmer was in Oakland).

Cutler posted a 27-13 starting record with the Chicago Bears from 2010 to 2012 despite ranking 16th in QBR at 47.9 over that span. The key? The Bears' defense ranked first in EPA across those three seasons. Dalton has a 40-23-1 starting record since 2011 despite ranking 22nd in QBR at 50.8. Defense is the key variable once again as the Bengals have ranked third in defensive EPA over that span.

Until last season, when Fitzpatrick posted a 6-6 starting record with Houston, he had always played for teams with among the worst defenses in the league. Using EPA per start, only Tony Romo has received less defensive support per start than Fitzpatrick has received since 2010 among the 26 quarterbacks with at least 40 qualifying starts. With so little help, is it any wonder Romo has been known more for spectacular failures than for ranking among the statistical leaders at the position?

Similarly, with so little help, is it any wonder Fitzpatrick's recent teams -- Buffalo and Tennessee in particular -- were so eager to part with him? The Bills and Titans have only gotten worse at the position since Fitzpatrick moved on. Without question, the Texans will have a hard time improving upon the 95.3 passer rating and 56.7 QBR score Fitzpatrick posted for them last season.

As if on cue, Fitzpatrick is joining a defense that ranked as one of the NFL's worst last season. The Jets ranked 25th in defensive EPA and 29th in QBR allowed (68.4). They gave up 31 touchdown passes, the third-highest total in the league. They picked off six passes, which tied for the league low. But after signing cornerback Darrelle Revis as part of a defensive overhaul this offseason, the Jets could have the talent to improve significantly on that side of the ball, with improvements in the secondary and up front. And if that happens, Fitzpatrick could become a winning quarterback without performing at a dramatically higher level than he has achieved over the past five seasons.