Future employers beware: Ryan Fitzpatrick has been historically bad in 2016

ByHank Gargiulo ESPN logo
Wednesday, December 7, 2016

At halftime of an eventual Monday night loss to the Indianapolis Colts, New York Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick was pulled following a disappointing 5-for-12 showing that included just 81 passing yards and his 14th interception of the season -- tied for the second most of any QB so far this year. Fitzpatrick's 24.6 Total QBRagainst the Colts was his second-worst performance of the season (only his 5.5 against the Chiefs in Week 3 is worse), and also the second-worst of his two-season tenure with the Jets.

Fitzpatrick has struggled all season and now has been replaced as the starting quarterback twice this season (the first time came after Week 6 when Geno Smith took over, before Smith's injury early in Week 7 necessitated a Fitzpatrick return). All this on the heels of a career year in 2015. What has happened to turn Fitz from the unquestioned starter on a 10-6 team to a twice-benched journeyman who will probably end up on his seventh team in 13 seasons next year?

Interceptions

The most noticeable issue facing Fitzpatrick is his poor interception rate. It isn't so much that the volume of interceptions is off the charts, but when you factor in his low number of attempts compared to QBs who have thrown a similar number of picks, his rate is downright alarming. In a season that is on pace to have the lowest percentage of passes intercepted in league history (2.1 percent, which would break the previous record set last season at 2.4 percent), Fitzpatrick has had 4.1 percent of his attempts picked this season, by far the highest rate of any qualified QB this season (the next-closest is the also-benched Case Keenum at 3.5 percent). This has occurred after back-to-back seasons in which Fitzpatrick he posted near-career-low interception rates of 2.7 percent in 2015 and 2.6 percent in 2014.

This year the interceptions have also been especially costly in terms of expected points added. As we have mentioned in the past, not all interceptions are created equal. A deep interception on a third-and-long isn't as damaging as an interception on an early down near the goal line. If we take a look at the quarterbacks' portion of the EPA lost on their interceptions, nobody has been more damaging in aggregate than Fitzpatrick.

Fitzpatrick has thrown five interceptions in the red zone this season; no other quarterback has thrown more than two. The five red-zone picks are tied for the second-most a QB has thrown in a season since 2001, behind only Jay Cutler's six in 2009. Last season, Fitzpatrick threw only one red-zone pick.

Pressure problems

Another area where Fitzpatrick is down big from 2015 is his performance while pressured. Last year he compiled a 71.5 raw QBR while pressured, the second-best mark in the league (the NFL average last season was 28.9 while pressured), but this season he has a 12.2 raw QBR while pressured, 29th out of 31 qualified quarterbacks.(The league average is 34.7 this season.)

A look at Fitzpatrick's week-by-week QBR numbers in 2016:

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