Because a colder air mass will begin to filter into the Northeast as the day unfolds, most temperatures will still be in the upper-20s and lower-30s around daybreak. But then, there should be very little recovery occurring this afternoon, so most Tri-State Area temperatures will be in the low and mid-30s with any sunshine fading behind increasing clouds.
The next round of snow, which will be reaching the area after nightfall (probably between the hours of 11 p.m. and 2 a.m.), will start off relatively light. However, the snow's intensity should peak between the hours of 3 and 9 a.m. before this fast-moving wave of low pressure starts heading out to sea during midday tomorrow.
This storm has been responsible for bringing around 8 inches of snow to cities in the Midwest like Kansas City and St. Louis, but it should also move more quickly this afternoon and this evening and should not cause similar snowfall totals in the lower Ohio River Valley, Kentucky and Tennessee. When the wave reaches the waters of the Atlantic Ocean tomorrow morning, it'll begin to intensify rapidly, both due to baroclinic processes (or the thermal gradient between the land mass and the ocean) and strengthening upper-level dynamics. But by the time it is reaching its "peak intensity" on Friday afternoon, the snow associated with this storm will have ended.
We feel that the City will wind up getting 3 or 4 inches of snowfall (assuming the liquid equivalent totals are in the 0.20" to 0.30" range and solid-to-liquid ratios are between 9:1 and 12:1), but some areas north and east of the City, probably in central or southern Connecticut, will get closer to 6 inches before all is said and done.
On the heels of this fast-moving low pressure system tomorrow night and Saturday, some of the season's coldest air to date will be getting unleashed on the Tri-State Area, with temperatures mostly in the single digits and teens on both Friday night and Saturday night, and no higher than the lower-20s during the daytime. Even Sunday looks quite cold.
The next chance for snow around here will be late on Monday night into Tuesday, and we'll have to see just how far NORTH this apparent low pressure system located in the southern-branch of the jet stream will track. For what it's worth, last night's 00z run of the European global model has trended farther EAST than previous runs with where this storm will be going, and the zero-degrees Celsius line at the 850-millibar level is draped right over the region. Next Monday night and Tuesday could be interesting...
Have a great day!
METEOROLOGIST BILL EVANS
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