NFL Football Power Index: 2026 projections, Super Bowl odds

The Seahawks and Patriots played in Super Bowl LX nearly four months ago, but they aren't seen as the two best teams entering the 2026 NFL season.

That's the take from ESPN's Football Power Index, which launched its initial preseason ratings, rankings and projections Wednesday. The Seahawks and Patriots rank fourth and 14th in FPI,respectively, entering 2026, with New England becoming the first team in the metric's history (since 2015) to be slated outside the top 10 of the initial rankings after making the Super Bowl.

FPI's preseason predictive ratings are primarily based on win totals from the betting market in conjunction with each team's schedule -- along with factors such as the difference between a team's starting and backup quarterback and a special teams rating that incorporates specific kickers. We use these ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, with the results forming our projections.

During the season, ratings updates are based on each team's performance on offense, defense and special teams -- adjusting for quality of opponent -- along with quarterback performance and changes. Game predictions are also affected by home-field advantage and rest differentials.

But we'll deal with that once the season starts. It's the offseason, so let's dive into our preseason, probabilistic crystal ball for the 2026 campaign. Here are some big takeaways from the set of projections.

Jump to notes on:

Early favorite | Super Bowl matchups

NFC West | Patriots | NFC North

Chiefs | Broncos | No. 1 draft pick

The Rams -- not the Seahawks -- are the preseason favorites

Seattle bested the Rams in the NFC West and in the NFC Championship Game last season, but FPI believes the Rams are the team to beat in 2026.

The explanation is straightforward -- offense is more stable year-to-year than defense. And Seattle's Super Bowl run was clearly fueled by an elite defense. Even though most of the unit (and the Seattle team as a whole) is back, regression is expected even if we don't know the exact source of it.

This can be seen in the team ratings. At the end of last season, the Seahawks had a defensive FPI rating of 4.6, meaning theirs was worth 4.6 points per game relative to an average team. Now? It's 2.1. Keep in mind that the current defensive rating is still the highest in the league. But it also represents a hefty drop in confidence to how FPI felt about that unit in the Super Bowl, because there are just so many more unknowns entering a new season.

The Rams, by contrast, won primarily with offense last season. While FPI expects some regression there too -- L.A.'s offense had a 5.3 rating at the end of 2025 and sits at 3.9 now -- it's a smaller drop than what the model has for the Seahawks' defense. And suddenly, the Rams also have an incredible defense on paper following Monday's trade to acquireedge rusherMyles Garrett. (They already addedcornerbacksTrent McDuffie and Jaylen Watsonthis offseason to fill the team's previous major weakness.)

The result is the Rams are the Super Bowl favorites, with a 14.9% chance to win the title. That's more than 4 percentage points higher than for the next-best team, the Bills. Seattle's chances to repeat are less than half of that at 7.0%.Los Angeles was already the Super Bowl favorite before the Garrett trade, but the acquisition of the former Browns edge rusher nudged its chances of a Lombardi Trophy even higher.

The Rams' roster quality is enough to overcome a tough 2026 schedule that is the second-most difficult according to FPI, behind only the Cardinals.

Who will play in Super Bowl LXI?

As discussed above, the Rams are the most likely team to make the Super Bowl from the NFC. As for the AFC, FPI's No. 2-ranked team -- Buffalo -- is the most likely to make the championship game.
It doesn't take much creativity to put the Bills in the title game. Josh Allen is arguably the best quarterback in the league, and they easily could have made the Super Bowl in recent seasons. The Ravens are top contenders, too, despite missing the playoffs last season and having a new coach. That's the Lamar Jackson effect, and Baltimore should be right back in the contending mix again if head coach Jesse Minter can provide a defensive lift.

It's no surprise, then, that the most and second-most likely Super Bowl matchups are Bills-Rams (4.8%) and Ravens-Rams (4.7%), respectively. That's followed by Bills-Seahawks and then Chiefs-Rams.

There is a 28% chance that one of the 10 matchups listed above is what we'll see in Super Bowl LXI.

Unprecedented strength in the NFC West

The last time that two teams from the same division made the top five of FPI's preseason ratings was 2022 (Bengals and Ravens). But the NFC West boasts three teams in the top five this year, an outrageous show of strength for the league's top division.

So, who will come out on top? We've outlined why the Rams are the favorite, but they're only a plurality favorite at 46.0%. The Seahawks are next with a 27.8% chance, closely followed by the 49ers at 26.1%. The Cardinals won the division in only 0.1% of our simulations.

Why are the Patriots so low?

As we mentioned in the intro, the Patriots are the first team to reach the Super Bowl and be ranked outside the top 10 in the following preseason FPI rankings. But they were also fortunate to make the Super Bowl last season, which is very much tied into their current ranking.
On the surface, the Patriots' numbers last season indicate a team with strong potential for sustained success. They led the league in EPA per play on offense and were 10th on defense. But those numbers came against the league's easiest strength of schedule. The Patriots' postseason schedule was also fortuitous, as they faced the Chargers,Texans andBo Nix-less Broncos.

On the other hand, this is not the same Patriots team as a year ago -- especially not after acquiring wide receiver A.J. Brown. The former Eagles star gives a lift to the best and most important part of this Patriots team: the passing offense.

So where does all of this leave New England in 2026? Still as a long-shot contender. The Patriots have a 6.7% and 2.7% chance to get back to, and win, the Super Bowl, respectively. That puts them on par with Denver and Houston.

And the Patriots are decent underdogs to the Bills in the AFC East. Buffalo has a 67.6% chance to win the division, while the Patriots have a 30.6% shot.

Can the Lions take advantage of a soft schedule to win the NFC North ... and maybe more?

The NFC North trio of the Bears, Packers and Vikings rank 10th, 14th and 16th in strength of schedule, respectively. But the Lions rank 31st. Detroit lucked out after finishing last in the division in 2025, as its fourth-place scheduled games differ significantly from its NFC North rivals.

Though the other three teams must battle with NFC West heavyweights, the Lions face the Cardinals. Same deal (to less of an extreme) with the AFC South -- the rest of the division has to face one of the Texans, Colts and Jaguars, and the Lions play the Titans. Detroit also will face the Giants, and the Bears and Packers will have to tangle with the Eagles and Cowboys, respectively.

So while FPI considers the Packers the best team in the NFC North heading into 2026, the Lions are narrow favorites to win the division with a 38.2% chance (compared to Green Bay's 32.8%).

Can the Bears build on the success of their 2025 season?

It's less likely than it might seem.
Chicago broke through last season, going 11-6 to win the NFC North and adding its first playoff win in 15 years. But the numbers suggest the Bears overachieved. They ranked seventh and 19th in offensive and defensive EPA per play, respectively, but that defensive number was entirely reliant on turnovers. Chicago's defense ranked 30th on non-turnover plays. Plus, while quarterback Caleb Williams delivered repeated jaw-dropping plays, he also ranked only 16th in QBR.

The Bears might show growth in 2026 and become the Super Bowl contender their fans hope for them to be. But FPI does not see that as a likelihoodbecause of the combination of last season's metrics and the first-place schedule they'll face in 2026. Chicago is a light underdog to make the playoffs (46.5%) and has only a 19.4% chance to win the NFC North -- roughly half of the Lions' chances.

Is this the low point for the Mahomes-era Chiefs?

Kansas City enters 2026 ranked ninth in FPI, its worst preseason ranking since 2018 -- the year Patrick Mahomes took over as the starting quarterback. That season, the Chiefs opened as FPI's 14th-ranked team but went on to a 12-4 record and reached the AFC Championship Game, the first of seven straight AFC title games for Kansas City.

It's not shocking to see this version of the Chiefs ranked where it is even though we now know how good Mahomes is because:

• The offense's struggles (relative to its previous highs) over the past couple of seasons.


• They lost both starting cornerbacks to the Rams.


• Mahomes is coming off a torn ACL and LCL in his left knee suffered last December.

How does the model handle that last nugget? It technically has Mahomes as active for the team's Week 1 "Monday Night Football" game against the Broncos right now. But the team strength forecast is driven by the win total betting market, which is surely considering some Mahomes uncertainty. Therefore, the model is implicitly baking in an elevated chance of Mahomes sitting out some time.

Why are the Broncos ranked 15th after being the AFC's 1-seed?

Denver is coming off a very impressive season, but FPI believes regression is coming.
One major red flag was the Broncos' 12-3 record (including playoffs) in one-score games last season -- a rate that is unlikely to continue. That's not something FPI explicitly considers, but it is the sort of thing the betting market might, which in turn affects FPI.

Also, like Seattle, Denver is led by a stellar defense. And even though that unit looks good again on paper, odds are it won't be quite as good as it was in 2025. Plus, like with Mahomes, there is some Bo Nix injury risk baked in after the quarterback had a second procedure on his right ankle in April.

Who lands the No. 1 pick?

For some teams, it's a race to the bottom. And before the season begins, it's the Dolphins who are "winning." FPI has the Dolphins -- who are starting fresh with a new head coach (Jeff Hafley), GM (Jon-Eric Sullivan) and quarterback (Malik Willis) -- as the worst team in football, just barely edging out the Jets.

But the Dolphins face the third-hardest schedule and the Jets face the sixth easiest.So Miamihas a 20.1% chance to earn the No. 1 pick, while the Jets are at 17.1%. The Cardinals and Browns follow behind at 15.3% and 12.8%, respectively. Those four teams have the best shot to landArch Manning, Dante Mooreor one of the many other quarterback prospects expected to be in the 2027 draft.

]