Evaluating NFL trades in the moment is, to put it nicely, an inexact science. Teams have more information about their players than the public does. The more honest organizations around the NFL will tell you that even they don't know how a guy they're acquiring might fit in their scheme or with his new teammates.The smartest organizations in the league have made some extremely bad trades. Deals that looked like steals at the time haven't been anywhere near as impressive with two or three years of perspective.
Let's take a step back and evaluate 18 trades from the 2018 and 2019 seasons and figure out who really won the deal. I wrote about many of these deals at the time and gave my opinion when they happened, and in each case, I'll offer up my perception of how they were regarded by the broader NFL audience when they happened.
Then, with the benefit of hindsight, I'll look back at what happened and where both the public and I went right or wrong in our evaluations at the time. In some cases, what was seen as a clear victory for one side in the past has turned out that way. In others, things have flipped in the opposite direction.
I picked the most significant trades from those two years, and we'll start with the first one in 2018 and work our way through 2019 in chronological order.
Jump to a big trade:br/>Odell Beckham Jr. | Amari Cooperbr/>Minkah Fitzpatrick | Khalil Mackbr/>Jalen Ramsey | Laremy Tunsil
The date: Feb. 23, 2018
At the time:This was the first of two big trades by the Rams in the 2018 offseason, as they acquired astar cornerback who curiously seemed to be available on the cheap. Peters had intercepted 19 passes over his first three seasons with Kansas City, but the Chiefs had grown tired of Peters, who had been suspended for a game by the team and reportedly been less than fond of physical contact. Getting Peters without having to give up a first-round pick -- or even a second-round pick in the 2018 draft -- was seen as a coup for the Rams in most circles.
What happened: Peters had an uneven season-plus with the Rams, never looking comfortable or reliable in Wade Phillips' defense. The ball hawk did pick off five passes in 22 games, but the Rams eventually traded Peters to the Ravens in what amounted to a salary dump as they were about to acquire Jalen Ramsey. (Los Angeles did, at the very least, resist the urge to give Ramsey a significant extension.) We'll get to both of those deals later. The Chiefs turned the second-round pick into Thornhill, who has been an above-average safety when healthy.
In hindsight: Win for Chiefs
The date: March 17, 2018
At the time: The Jets moved up three spots in the first round to get their quarterback, but was it enough? Former general manager Mike Maccagnan's team moved up to only the No. 3 spot, which left the possibility that the Giants could draft Darnold at No. 2 and leave the Jets thinking about another option under center. Thankfully, whether the Jets knew what was going to happen or not, the Giants drafted Saquon Barkley and the Jets landed Darnold. The Colts were set for years to come with Andrew Luck at quarterback, although he had missed the entire 2017 season. This seemed like it could be a win-win.
What happened: It was a win-loss. The missing draft picks kept the Jets from surrounding Darnold with talent, but even when he had a clean pocket, he just wasn't very good in his three seasons with the Jets. The new regime just unloaded Darnold on the Panthers to start over with Zach Wilson.
The Colts turned the four selections they got from the Jets into five players, three of whom are steady starters. Drafting Nelson alone would have been a massive victory, as the guard is three seasons into what looks to be a Hall of Fame career. Landing an above-average tackle in Smith only added to the haul, although Turay and Ya-Sin haven't necessarily lived up to expectations as second-rounders. Of course, the Colts did end up needing a quarterback after Luck retired, but even if general manager Chris Ballard had known so at the time, it's unclear whether Darnold would have been the answer.
In hindsight: Big win for Colts
The date: April 3, 2018