Projected NFL draft order for 2022: Who has the No. 1 pick?

ByESPN staff via ESPN logo
Tuesday, January 4, 2022
ESPN

The Jacksonville Jaguars have an 83.1% chance to have theNo. 1 pick in the 2022 NFL draftwith one week left in the regular season, according to the updated first-round projections from the ESPN Football Power Index.

The 2-14 Jaguars -- who picked first in the 2021 draft -- took over the top spot after the Detroit Lions'upsetof the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15. The Lions are now 2-13-1, with that tie looming large in the race for the No. 1 pick. The Jaguars' final opponents of the season are the Indianapolis Colts. Unless there is an upset, it looks like the Lions won't be able to catch them for the top spot.

There already have been five trades involving first-round picks in the 2022 draft, with the New York Giantsand New York Jets both projected to have two top-10 picks. The Philadelphia Eagles are projected to have three picks in the first round, thanks to deals with theMiami DolphinsandtheIndianapolis Colts--the latter of which involves a conditional pick based on quarterback Carson Wentz's playing time. After spraining both ankles in Week 2, Wentz has played nearly every snap since.

Every week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model's ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games, and the order is based on each team's average draft position in the simulations.

Check out the full 1-32 projection for the 2022 NFL draft (updated Jan. 4):

1. Jacksonville Jaguars(2-14)

Average draft position:1.2

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick:83.1%

FPI chance to earn top-five pick:>99.9%

2. Detroit Lions(2-13-1)

Average draft position:1.8

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick:16.9%

FPI chance to earn top-five pick:>99.9%

3. Houston Texans(4-12)

Average draft position:3.4

FPI chance to earn top-five pick:>99.9%

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick:>99.9%

4. New York Jets(4-12)

Average draft position:3.8

FPI chance to earn top-five pick:98.5%

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: >99.9%

5. New York Giants(4-12)

Average draft position:5.2

FPI chance to earn top-five pick:63.9%

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: >99.9%

6. Carolina Panthers(5-11)

Average draft position:5.6

FPI chance to earn top-five pick:37.6%

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick:>99.9%

7. New York Jets (via 6-10SEA)

Average draft position:8.1

FPI chance to earn top-five pick:<0.1%

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 94.1%

8. New York Giants (via 6-10CHI)

Average draft position:8.3

FPI chance to earn top-five pick:<0.1%

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick:88.2%

9. Atlanta Falcons(7-9)

Average draft position:9.8

FPI chance to earn top-five pick:<0.1%

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick:66.7%

10. Washington Football Team(6-10)

Average draft position:9.8

FPI chance to earn top-five pick:<0.1%

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick:60.7%

11. Denver Broncos(7-9)

Average draft position:10.3

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick:56.4%

12. Minnesota Vikings(7-9)

Average draft position:12.1

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick:21.4%

13. Cleveland Browns(7-9)

Average draft position: 12.5

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick:12.4%

14. Philadelphia Eagles (via 8-8MIA)

Average draft position: 13.6

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick:<0.1%

15. Pittsburgh Steelers(8-7-1)

Average draft position:16.5

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick:<0.1%

16. Baltimore Ravens(8-8)

Average draft position:17.0

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick:<0.1%

17. New Orleans Saints(8-8)

Average draft position: 17.6

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick:<0.1%

18. Las Vegas Raiders(9-7)

Average draft position:18.7

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick:1.1%

19. Miami Dolphins (via 9-7SF)

Average draft position: 19.9

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick:<0.1%

20. Los Angeles Chargers(9-7)

Average draft position:20.6

FPI chance to earn top-10 pick:<0.1%

21. Philadelphia Eagles(9-7)

Average draft position:20.9

22. Philadelphia Eagles(via 9-7 IND)

Average draft position:21.7

23. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)

Average draft position: 24.3

24. New England Patriots (10-6)

Average draft position: 24.6

25. Arizona Cardinals(11-5)

Average draft position:25.6

26. Dallas Cowboys(11-5)

Average draft position: 26.3

27. Buffalo Bills(10-6)

Average draft position: 26.9

28. Detroit Lions (via 12-4LAR)

Average draft position: 27.2

29. Kansas City Chiefs(11-5)

Average draft position: 27.5

30. Tennessee Titans(11-5)

Average draft position: 27.8

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers(12-4)

Average draft position: 28.2

32. Green Bay Packers(13-3)

Average draft position:30.0

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