AccuWeather: AM shower, PM storm

AccuWeather forecast for NYC, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut

ByEyewitness News WABC logo

NEW YORK (WABC) -- Our pleasant pattern has made for a refreshing break from the typical early-summer mugginess, but the calm is expected to be short-lived as a frontal system approaches on Wednesday and begins to shift the atmosphere over the next couple of days.

As the system moves in, humidity levels will gradually climb, setting the stage for more unsettled conditions. Conditions will deteriorate on Wednesday as the day progresses. Late-morning showers will develop, and by the afternoon, thunderstorms may become more active, particularly south of the city, where some storms could briefly become heavy and gusty.

Despite increasing cloud cover and chances of precipitation, air quality is expected to remain good. Pollen levels will sit in the low-to-medium range, with grass pollen being the primary contributor at this point in the season. Meanwhile, the UV index remains high, indicating that sun protection is still important during any breaks of sunshine.

For those heading to the coast or out on the water, conditions will generally remain manageable, with light south-southeast winds around 5 to 10 miles per hour and seas running in a light chop of 1 to 2 feet. Water temperatures are mostly in the 60s, though some offshore readings are approaching 70 degrees. The rip current risk is classified as low to moderate, though the threat of a sudden thunderstorm means conditions could change quickly.

Looking beyond the midweek unsettled stretch, the forecast turns more favorable just in time for the weekend. Saturday is expected to be bright and breezy, with temperatures near 80 degrees and most areas staying dry. Father's Day on Sunday, which also marks the official start of summer, will bring slightly warmer temperatures in the low to mid-80s along with a mix of sun and clouds. Any showers are likely to hold off until nighttime, allowing for largely uninterrupted daytime plans.

The calmer conditions, however, may not last long. Early next week, the weather is expected to become unsettled once again, with periods of rain possible on Monday. While there are indications that steadier rainfall could shift out later in the day, the overall pattern points to continued variability, especially for evening events. Sunshine is expected to return by Tuesday, offering another brief period of more stable conditions.