NBA Finals betting tips, DFS picks: Will Jalen Brunson come up big again in Game 3?

ESPN's basketball daily cheat sheet is your pregame destination before you lock in daily fantasy and betting decisions for that night's games. Here you'll find our top insights for the slate, including players to target for your daily fantasy rosters, along with game-by-game injury reports.

Game 3 projections, injury reports

Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook

San Antonio Spurs at New York Knicks

8:30 p.m. ET on ABC

Line: Spurs +1.5 (-105) | Knicks -1.5 (-115)

Money line: Spurs +105 | Knicks -125

Total: 216.5 (-105 O, -115 U)

BPI Projection: Knicks by 2.6, straight up 58%, 216.2 total points.

Injury Report:



Spurs: David Jones Garcia, (OFS - Ankle)

Knicks: None reported

We enter Game 3 tonight with two conflicting trends at play.

On the one hand, the New York Knicks won both of the first two games on the road and will be returning home for the next two games, setting up the potential for a series sweep.

On the other hand, both of the first two games were extremely close, back-and-forth affairs where the San Antonio Spurs held a lead with under two minutes remaining in the game ... suggesting the potential for a competitive, back-and-forth series that could go the distance.

Both trends can't play out simultaneously. Probably. You would think? Could we really get a series sweep of four ultra-close, competitive games? I guess it's in play. At the least, because these two teams are both playing at a high level and seem to be evenly matched.

The biggest advantage for the Knicks seems to be experience, with a team full of veterans all playing with excellent synergy. The Spurs may indeed be the more talented team built around an upcoming generational player in Victor Wembanyama, but in crunch time it has been the more seasoned Knicks and their equally seasoned coach Mike Brown that have made all the right plays and calls down the stretch.

For Game 3, the action shifts from San Antonio to New York. Do the Knicks add home-court advantage to their already high-level play and win this game more comfortably? Or do Wemby and the Spurs punch back and earn a win of their own, making the series as close as the first two games were? We'll find out tonight.

In the meantime, let's do what we do and dig deeper into the matchups, identifying some betting angles and daily fantasy plays of interest.

Dre's bets for Monday

Jalen BrunsonOVER 25.5 points (-125): After the end of Game 1, when Brunson dominated the fourth quarter to lead the Knicks to a victory, the Spurs came out double-teaming Brunson early and often in Game 2. Their defense has paid dividends on Brunson individually, holding him to 34.0% shooting from the field through two games, but it allowed the rest of the Knicks to get loose and knock down good looks ... until the end of the game, when the Spurs went to more 1-on-1 coverage on Brunson and helped spark their comeback. I expect the Spurs to continue that approach with more 1-on-1 coverage on Brunson in Game 3, which should give him the chance to put some points on the board. Brunson is scoring 25.0 PPG through the first two games, so I expect him to go over that number tonight.

VictorWembanyama 8+ first quarter points (-113): The Spurs have their backs to the wall, and more than that, Wembanyama had a nightmare ending to Game 2 with a turnover, foul and missed shot in the final 10 seconds. In these playoffs, Wemby has responded to that type of adversity by coming out aggressive in the following game. In Game 4 of the Western Conference finals, down 2-1 against the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder, Wembanyama responded with 11 first-quarter points. Then, in Game 6, down 3-2, Wemby again responded with 11 first-quarter points. I'm expecting him to come out aggressively tonight and put a big number on the board. On DraftKings, you can get plus money on Wemby scoring nine or more first-quarter points.

Top Daily Fantasy Values of the Day

$8,100+ salaries

Victor Wembanyama, C, San Antonio Spurs ($13,000): Wembanyama is bar none the best fantasy producer in this series, even with his shooting percentage lower than his norm. Wembanyama is averaging 52.9 FPPG in the first two games, higher than his season average of 51.6, and has upside to go bigger in a must-have Game 3.

Karl-Anthony Towns, PF/C, New York Knicks ($10,800): Towns is playing some of the best basketball of his career of late, and is in the midst of a four-game stretch averaging about 46 fantasy points per game even with half of those games coming against NBA Defensive Player of the Year Wembanyama. Coming back home to New York, Towns should continue his strong play as long as he can avoid foul trouble.

$6,100-$8,000 salaries

Mikal Bridges, SF, New York Knicks ($6,600): Bridges dropped 40 fantasy points in Game 2, his second 40+ FP effort in his last four games. He has scored more than 20 fantasy points in 11 straight games, averaging well into the mid-30s and outpacing his season average of 28.7 FPPG.
$1,500-$5,900 salaries

Dylan Harper, PG/SG, San Antonio Spurs ($5,800): Harper has been consistently productive when called upon, scoring more than 25 fantasy points in four straight games with a total of 57.5 fantasy points through the first two games of the series. The Spurs will need his production again in Game 3 if they want to try to get back into the series.

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