Betting tips for 'Thursday Night Football': Jets a rare favorite vs. Pats

Week 3 gets going Thursday night with the New England Patriots (1-1) visiting the New York Jets (1-1) at MetLife Stadium.

The Patriots enter as 6-point underdogs but are one of eight teams that are 2-0 ATS this season (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers, Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears). Following an upset of the Cincinnati Bengals on the road in Week 1, New England fell at home to the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday.

Meanwhile, after a lackluster loss to the San Francisco 49ers to open the season, the Jets bounced back against the Tennessee Titans to even their record. Thursday night will be their first home game of the season.

The Jets are 2-1 to win the AFC East, trailing the Buffalo Bills (-135), and the Patriots are long shots at 30-1.

Game lines

Spread:Jets -6

Money line: Patriots (+220), Jets (-270)

Over/Under: 38.5

First-half spread: Jets -3.5 (-105), Patriots +3.5 (-125)

Patriots total points:16.5 (Over Even/Under -130)

Jets total points:22.5 (Over -115/Under -115)

The props

Passing

Aaron Rodgers total passing yards:224.5 (Over +120/Under -155)

Rodgers total passing TDs:1.5 (Over +125/Under -160)

Jacoby Brissett total passing yards:174.5 (Over +110/Under -140)

Brissett total passing TDs:0.5 (Over -160/Under +125)

Rushing

Breece Hall total rushing yards:59.5 (Over -130/Under +100)

Rhamondre Stevenson total rushing yards:69.5 (Over +110/Under -140)

Receiving

Garrett Wilson total receiving yards:69.5 (Over +105/Under -135)

Hall total receiving yards:29.5 (Over -135/Under +105)

Hunter Henry total receiving yards:34.5 (Over -115/Under -115)

Stevenson total receiving yards:14.5 (Over -130/Under Even)

Allen Lazard total receiving yards:34.5 (Over Even/Under -130)

Seth Walder's picks

Jets DT Quinnen Williams under 0.5 sacks (-180): This is a close-your-eyes-and-forget-you-made-this-bet-until-the-end-of-the-game selection, because Williams is a good player and the Patriots' offensive line ranks last in the NFL in pass block win rate through two weeks.

Despite that, Jacoby Brissett has a slightly better than average 6.6% sack rate -- and that's more important than the porous offensive line, given how much quarterbacks control their sack rates.

Also, of critical note, Williams' opportunities will be limited because the Patriots just don't pass that much: They have the 28th-highest designed pass rate (and 29th highest if we only look at situations when win probability was between 15-85%). Sack forecasts for defensive tackles are just lower in general, too. My model makes the fair price here -220.

Patriots WR DeMario Douglas 40+ receiving yards (+250): Targets are earned for wide receivers, and therefore the rate at which a receiver is able to have the ball thrown his way is an indication of skill. Since the start of last season, Douglas' 23% target rate ranks 38th out of 79 qualifying wide receivers. Even though his target rate has dropped precipitously (10%) through two games this season, the snap counts have been in line with what he was playing last season, and I'm betting the targets will come back, too.

Similarly, Douglas had a regular over/under receiving line (a forecasted median, essentially) of over 40 six times last season. Now we're getting +250 on that number, which is what this bet is all about -- the value and the price. My alt receiving line model, which also likes his value at 30+ and 35+ receiving yards, just a little bit less, prices this one at +147.

Betting trends

Courtesy ESPN Research

• Underdogs of at least 6 points are 8-0 ATS this season, the best mark through two weeks since the AFL/NFL merger (1970). The last time underdogs of 6+ points were undefeated ATS through two weeks was in 1969 (9-0-1 ATS). They are 4-4 outright.
• The Jets have not closed as at least 6-point favorites against the Patriots since 2000.
• The Patriots had been favored in 24 straight meetings, the longest active head-to-head streak in the NFL.
• Coaches within their first 10 career games on three days' rest are 9-26 ATS since 2013.
• The Patriots are 6-1 ATS/SU in the past seven meetings and 15-1 SU (11-5 ATS) in the past 16 meetings. The Patriots have won eight straight road meetings (5-3 ATS), covering five of the past six road matchups.
• This is the Jets' second-largest favorite role in the last six seasons (-7.5 vs. Bears in 2022, won 31-10).
• The Patriots have covered six straight games as an underdog. They have also covered four straight road games.
• The past four meetings between these teams have gone under the total.
• The Jets are 1-6 ATS in their past seven games as favorites (3-4 outright).
• The Patriots are 2-0 ATS. They are seeking their first 3-0 ATS start since 2016.

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