The parties' coalitions are changing before Election Day. Nobody knows what's next.
The Democratic and Republican Parties' coalitions are undergoing a seismic change just weeks before Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump face off against each other.
What comes after Election Day is anyone's guess.
Harris is overperforming with seniors, sparking speculation she could even win a demographic that has traditionally leaned Republican. Trump, meanwhile, is eating into Democrats' edge with Black and Hispanic voters, particularly males, eroding a gap that has sunk past GOP presidential contenders.
The 2024 presidential election therefore marks not just a key race to see who leads the country but also one of the first contests under what could be brand new dynamics for the parties. Gone, at least for now, are the days of Republicans banking on the support older voters -- some of the nation's most reliable ballot punchers -- and Democrats' proclamations that demography is destiny.
"The trend lines are that we can't take voters for granted, neither party can take voters for granted. The coalitions are shifting," said Jamal Simmons, a Democratic strategist and former communications director for Harris' vice-presidential office.
Poll after poll suggests voter preferences are altering with little time to suss out what the changes mean.
A CNN/SSRS poll released last month showed Harris leading Trump 50-46 among voters 65 years old and up. No Democratic presidential contender has carried that group since Al Gore in 2000.
Meanwhile, a recent Pew poll showed Trump getting 14% support among Black voters and 38% support among Hispanic voters, compared to 79% and 54% for Harris, respectively. In 2020, President Joe Biden won 87% support from Black voters and 65% support from Latinos.
Those numbers are even starker when divided by gender.
Biden won 79% support from Black men and 59% support among Hispanic men four years ago. In the pew poll, those numbers dropped to 72% support for Harris from Black men and 53% support for her from Hispanic men.
The shifting numbers have the campaigns and outside operatives scrambling to figure out why voter preferences are changing the way they are and how long after Nov. 5 that shift will continue.
Strategists in both parties speculated that seniors defecting to Harris are motivated by temperament and healthcare, potentially spooked by the Jan. 6, 2021, riot on Capitol Hill and repeated Democratic attacks that Republicans will go after long-coveted entitlement programs.
"One is, is that Democrats have done a lot for seniors. Thirty-five-dollar insulin, $2,000 cap on prescription drugs, negotiating with Medicare, etc., etc. They have an advantage on voters trust them on Social Security and Medicare more than Republicans. And I think that there's a qualitative thing, which is, I don't think for seniors, Trump is their type of Republican. They don't like his behavior," said John Anzalone, a Democratic pollster who conducts surveys for both Harris' campaign and AARP.
Black and Latino voters, meanwhile, are thought to be leaning more on economic arguments than racial ones that Democrats had long deployed. Those voters, experts said, defied traditional thinking of voters with uniquely strong cultural concerns and instead taking into account similar concerns as white working-class voters.
"What you're seeing is this transformation of things like race and ethnicity, where Black and brown voters are increasingly becoming more Republican for reasons that are clearly not racial," said Mike Madrid, a GOP strategist who studies and writes about Latino voting patterns. "This peculiar interaction between race, economic class and diplomas or college education...are happening in very unique ways that are reshaping the coalitions."
"The Democratic Party is becoming more white, it's becoming less diverse, and where it's concentrating voters is with college-educated white progressives who are much more insulated to the economy and economic shocks and things like inflation and recessions. Those aren't issues for them. What is, is abortion rights, gun control, marriage equality," he said.
Economic frustrations are thought to be particularly motivating among men, with whom Trump is consolidating support.
"Democrats have to talk about issues that are important to men, which are very often economic issues, particularly around aspirations. Men want to be able to take care of their families, be contributors to society, and have the standing that comes with a good job or a good business," Simmons said.
Each candidate is putting in work to stem their losses.
Trump has boasted of his plan to end taxes on Social Security income, and Harris is waging a full court media blitz to bring Black men back into the fold, appearing on key radio shows and deploying former President Barack Obama to deliver a stern message to those potentially wary of electing a female president.
The country will only have to wait mere weeks to see if those efforts will pay off -- for this election. Even the most veteran operatives aren't sure what happens from Nov. 6 onward.
Trump has said this will be his last race, and his singular hold on the GOP may not be replicated, meaning the day after he leaves the stage -- whenever that happens -- could mark a watershed political moment.
"I think you're asking the right questions. I just don't have all the right answers," GOP pollster Whit Ayres said when asked what comes next. "I am loathe to try to give a prediction about what a party would look like without a figure that has so dominated the party for the last eight years."
Some strategists think the dynamics will snap back -- with seniors going back to Republicans and voters of color coming home to the Democratic Party, arguing that the unique personalities in this year's race are driving the movement, as seen by more traditional trends playing out in some down-ballot races.
"If he goes away, if we beat him, I think that this whole thing starts lining back up long as you have a strong Democratic nominee," said Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha. "I don't see all the opportunities once Donald Trump is gone, because the Donald Trump phenomenon is only happening with Donald Trump."
"I think Trump is seen as better on the economy among a subset of younger voters than most Republicans. So, I think it will be challenging for Republicans writ large to mimic that success," added a source familiar with the Harris campaign's thinking.
Others disagreed, noting that the trends that are producing the changes, such as a rise in populism, were bubbling up prior to Trump and will outlive his political career.
"I don't think Trump is the driver of this," Madrid said. "These dynamics began before him.
"I don't think it's as clear as to say one group is going to benefit over the other. I think what we're seeing is the movement of all these pieces away from a right-left spectrum to a top-down spectrum," he added.
Still others predicted a whole new ballgame.
Trump has undoubtedly altered America's politics, and, as seen by the failures of some of his primary rivals, his personal brand is difficult to replicate -- meaning without him on a ticket, the country might simply be staring into the political unknown.
"Floodgates open up for there to be competition among subgroups. I absolutely believe that. I think all bets are off. And it just depends on who the candidates are on both sides," Anzalone said. "There may be no snapping back."
