2025 NFL draft order projections: Patriots, Giants at top
The2024 NFL season is 12 weeks old, and it's never too early to think about the 2025 draft, which begins on April 24 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Let's take a look at the projected first-round draft order for all 32 teams using ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI).
Each week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 20,000 times. Game probabilities are based primarily on the model's team ratings and game locations. The draft order is determined by the records the model projects for each team after 17 games, as well as each team's average draft position across the simulations.
Our FPI predictions gave theNew York Giantsthe best chance to secure the first pick after Week 11, but there has been a shift at the top of the board. TheNew England Patriotsare now projected at No. 1 overall. Which teams round out the top five? What about the top 10? Check out our full projections below, and check back every Tuesday for updates throughout the season.
1. New England Patriots (3-9)
Average draft position: 3.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 27.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 87.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 99.4%
2. New York Giants (2-9)
Average draft position: 3.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 26.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 81.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 98.4%
3. Las Vegas Raiders (2-9)
Average draft position: 4.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 18.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 71.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 97.2%
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9)
Average draft position: 5.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 12.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 62.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 94.0%
5. Carolina Panthers (3-8)
Average draft position: 5.3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 7.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 58.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 93.6%
6. Tennessee Titans (3-8)
Average draft position: 7.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 37.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 82.1%
7. Cleveland Browns (3-8)
Average draft position: 7.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.3%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 31.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 80.7%
8. New York Jets (3-8)
Average draft position: 8.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 1.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 27.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 74.9%
9. Dallas Cowboys (4-7)
Average draft position: 9.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 15.0%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 67.4%
10. Chicago Bears (4-7)
Average draft position: 9.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 10.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 59.5%
11. New Orleans Saints (4-7)
Average draft position: 11.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 7.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 42.4%
12. Cincinnati Bengals (4-7)
Average draft position: 12.9
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 4.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 31.5%
13. Miami Dolphins (5-6)
Average draft position: 13.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 29.7%
14. Indianapolis Colts (5-7)
Average draft position: 14.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 19.3%
15. Los Angeles Rams (5-7)
Average draft position: 15.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 13.3%
16. San Francisco 49ers (5-6)
Average draft position: 16.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 7.2%
17. Seattle Seahawks (6-5)
Average draft position: 17.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 4.0%
18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6)
Average draft position: 19.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2.3%
19. Denver Broncos (7-5)
Average draft position: 20.1
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.5%
20. Arizona Cardinals (6-5)
Average draft position: 20.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.7%
21. Atlanta Falcons (6-5)
Average draft position: 20.8
22. Washington Commanders (7-5)
Average draft position: 21.0
23. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
Average draft position: 23.1
24. Houston Texans (7-5)
Average draft position: 23.2
25. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3)
Average draft position: 24.2
26. Minnesota Vikings (9-2)
Average draft position: 26.0
27. Green Bay Packers (8-3)
Average draft position: 26.0
28. Baltimore Ravens (8-4)
Average draft position: 26.6
29. Philadelphia Eagles (9-2)
Average draft position: 27.3
30. Buffalo Bills (9-2)
Average draft position: 28.0
31. Kansas City Chiefs (10-1)
Average draft position: 28.5
32. Detroit Lions (10-1)
Average draft position: 29.3
