Week 3 betting by the numbers: Sportsbooks piling on wins with incredible underdog run

NFL underdogs are rolling, and bettors are reeling from a slew of upsets that have caused chaos in survivor contests and shrinkage to the betting public's bankroll. And it has been only three weeks.

Betting underdogs are 15-15 straight up over the past two weeks and 18-12 against the spread. Even big favorites haven't been immune to the upset bug. For the third straight NFL Sunday, the biggest favorite on the board lost outright, with the New York Giants, 6.5-point underdogs, knocking off the Cleveland Browns in one of the day's seven straight-up upsets. Underdogs getting six or more points this season are 6-5 outright and 10-1 against the spread.

The betting public hasn't caught on to the underdog trend yet. A sports trader for BetMGM said Sunday morning that the book was pulling for "nearly every underdog."

Two of the three most-selected teams in the $14.2 million Circa Survivor contest -- the Browns and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- lost, and the Cincinnati Bengals, the top choice, are 7.5-point favorites over the Washington Commanders on Monday.

Bettors, who managed to maintain a bankroll until this week, noticed an uptick in promotional odds boosts from sportsbooks this weekend and wondered if bookmakers were worried that they'd won so much in the first two weeks that their customers wouldn't be able to keep playing.

Week 2 was especially costly for the betting public and especially lucrative for bookmakers. New York sportsbooks reported a net win of $69.2 million last week. That's more than double the amount the state's sportsbooks won in Week 1 ($32.3M) and the most in a single week since mid-May, when the New York Knicks lost Games 6 and 7 of their playoff series to the Indiana Pacers, fueling a $70.9 million win for the books.

"Last week was really good," said Ed Salmons, a veteran Las Vegas bookmaker with the Westgate SuperBook. "Yeah, but it's going to turn back the other way," Chris Andrews, another veteran Las Vegas bookmaker with South Point casino, said.

The bookmakers believe the early-season upsets reflect the widespread parity in the NFL. Salmons said the betting market is overreacting week to week. "A team is good one week, and then they underachieve the next," he said.

Craig Mucklow, vice president of trading at Caesars Sportsbook, thinks there are only a handful of elite teams and another few in the bottom tier. Everyone else is stuck in a pack of teams that is extremely balanced.

"Then you've got that pack of like 26 teams that are very well-matched," he said Sunday. "It shows that the NFL is really unpredictable."

Underdog Vikings climb Super Bowl odds

Before the season, bookmakers and bettors alike didn't give the Minnesota Vikings much of a chance. The Vikings had 100-1 odds to win the Super Bowl at ESPN BET, tied for seventh longest, with a preseason win total of 6.5, their lowest since 2014.

Three weeks later, the narrative has been turned upside down. Minnesota is 3-0 with wins over the Giants, San Francisco 49ers and Houston Texans, the latter two of whom were seen as legitimate championship contenders entering the season. The Vikes were one-point favorites against the Giants, then 3.5-point underdogs to the 49ers and 1.5-point 'dogs to the Texans, the past two wins coming at home

This makes Minnesota the first team since the 2015 Atlanta Falcons to win its first three games outright despite not being more than a one-point favorite in any of them, according to ESPN Research. Bettors didn't believe the Vikings would turn it around for Week 3, as Houston's spread gathered the majority of bets and handle at ESPN BET and BetMGM.

As a result of the hot start, Minnesota is flying up the Super Bowl odds board.Kevin O'Connell's squad moved to +7500 after winning in Week 1 to +4000 after the upset win in Week 2, and now it sits at +3000 at ESPN BET, tied for 13th in the league. At DraftKings, the Vikes garnered the third-most bets and handle on Super Bowl futures placed Sunday.

Minnesota's hot start has been by the grace of resurgent quarterback Sam Darnold. Through three weeks, the USC product has 657 passing yards, for 8.4 per attempt, as well as a league-leading eight TD passes.

In the MVP betting market, Darnold has moved from not even being offered at ESPN BET to 100-1 before Week 3 to +3500 following the most recent action. He's tied with Dak Prescott and Jared Goff for the 10th spot on the list.

Bettors are starting to believe in Darnold's play as well: On Sunday, he was the most-bet player to win the league's highest individual honor at DraftKings, taking 41% of wagers and 37% of money.

Malik Nabers improves OROY odds with electric performance

The Giants believed they had something special when they drafted Malik Nabers No. 6 in 2024 from the wide receiver factory at LSU. After three weeks, they have to be thrilled with what they've seen, and the betting markets are responding in kind.

Following an eight-reception, 78-yard performance that included two highlight-reel TD catches, Nabers is now the first player in NFL history with 20 receptions and three touchdowns through his first three games, per ESPN Research.

For the contest, Caesars Sportsbook had Nabers' odds to score two or more touchdowns at +1400 odds. At ESPN BET, he got the second-most bets as an anytime touchdown scorer in the Giants' win over the Cleveland Browns.

"Nabers is introducing himself to the league in a big way over the last two weeks, and bettors are starting to take notice," a trading spokesperson for the sportsbook told ESPN.

The 21-year-old is quickly joining the favorite conversation to win Offensive Rookie of the Year this season. Nabers opened with future odds of +1300, came down to +1000 before the start of the campaign and was +700 ahead of Sunday's games, per ESPN BET odds. At DraftKings, he has taken over outright favorite status to win the honor with +200 odds after attracting 30% of the bets and 41% of the handle on Sunday.

Just behind him is Arizona Cardinals receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (+220), who has also caught three touchdown passes through three weeks. The Ohio State product opened at +650, entered the season at +600 and was the leader at +275 as of Sunday morning at ESPN BET.

But as those wide receivers rise in the Rookie of the Year odds, a highly touted quarterback continues to fall: No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams was the favorite for the honor entering the season at +200, but fell to +350 ahead of Week 3. The new odds at DraftKings show the former USC signal-caller at double that number with +700, fourth on the odds board.

One name to watch going forward: Jayden Daniels. The 2024 draft's No. 2 pick has been lurking around the top three of the odds board right in the +300 range and could improve on those odds with a strong performance on "Monday Night Football."

Odds and Ends

• $1 million: A bettor at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas placed a $1 million money-line bet on theKansas City Chiefsto beat the Falconsstraight up Sunday at -175 odds. The Chiefs won 22-17.
• 375,000: Approximately 375,000 bets were tracked Sunday on Pikkit, an app that allows bettors to sync up and track their sportsbook accounts. Only 386 of those bets were two-leg parlays featuring the Denver Broncos and Giants, the two biggest underdogs to win.
• $115,000: The amount a customer with BetMGM wagered on Notre Dame -27.5 against Miami (Ohio). It was the largest reported college football bet by BetMGM. The Fighting Irish won 28-3, failing to cover the spread.
• $110,000: The amount a customer with Caesars Sportsbook in Nevada wagered on under 48 points scored in the Baltimore Ravens-Dallas Cowboys game. The Cowboys, who had been held in check for the first three quarters, scored 19 straight points in the final nine minutes to push the game over the total. The Ravens won 28-25.
• $149.40: The amount a bettor won off their $4,930.30 money-line bet on Notre Dame to beat Miami (Ohio) straight up at betting exchange Sporttrade.
• Three: the number of contestants who failed to submit their selections for Week 2 in Circa Survivor, an NFL survivor contest with a $1,000 buy-in and a $14.2 million grand prize.
• 360-1: The parlay odds at DraftKings on Bo Nix and Malik Willis scoring the first touchdowns in their respective games Sunday. The quarterbacks delivered, and DraftKings reported taking a $2 parlay on Nix and Willis that paid a $720 profit. Less than 2% of the total bets in DraftKings' first-touchdown markets on the respective games were on Nix or Willis.
• 20-1: The Los Angeles Rams' longest odds to win during Sunday's upset of the 49ers. The Rams twice trailed by 14 and were down 10 entering the fourth quarter. Los Angeles won 27-24 on a last-second field goal.
• 15-1: Colorado two-way star Travis Hunter's odds to win the Heisman Trophy at ESPN BET. Hunter entered the weekend at 30-1. He forced a game-sealing fumble in overtime of the Buffaloes' dramatic 38-31 win over Baylor on Saturday. Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders is 100-1 to win the Heisman. Miami QB Cam Ward remains the consensus Heisman favorite at sportsbooks.