NHL betting: Three futures bets to make
It's been a volatile first third of the season for several underperforming teams in the NHL. We're already up to three head coaches fired with a hew more hot seats, while a good group of those still employed haven't held back in dressing down their charges publicly. This brings us to the so-monikered, and statistically supported, "new coach bump," in which a team and/or certain individuals react positively to the harsh stimulus of their bench boss being shown the door. It's a phenomenon we might want to pay a little more attention, with the focus on individual scoring totals. The following three -- two of whom are already playing for new head coaching figures -- deserve particular attention as their club's best players with a shot at exceeding their respective projected scoring sums by season's end.
Three future bets to make
Connor Bedard Regular Season Total Points Over 70.5 (+125): From a statistical perspective, the fresh coach bump in Chicago is tangibly benefitting the club's young superstar. Since Anders Sorensen took over for Luke Richardson behind the Blackhawks' bench, Bedard has seven points in five games, including a pair of goals. A nice haul, particularly in contrast with the five goals and 14 assists inconsistently accrued over his prior 26 contests. The sophomore's current 9.1% shooting percentage and a rise in shots per game suggest an additional boost in goal scoring is on the way.
Enjoying greater success 5v5, Bedard collected 61 points in 68 games during his Calder-winning season (0.9/contest). Another similar run from now until season's end would result in a grand sum of 72, which checks the above "over" box, though marginally. That Sorensen is committed to finding the right line combination to best benefit his budding superstar offers additional hope. There's also a lot to be said for backing players with exceptionally high ceilings. Would you be at all surprised to see Bedard absolutely go off for a substantial stretch? I wouldn't.
Tage Thompson Regular Season Total Goals Over 40.5 (+110): First of all, he already has 16 in 26 contests. Another 25 in 51 hardly feels out of reach. There's also the optimism that this week's team meeting, in which Sabres owner Terry Pegula reportedly offered his reassurances that no drastic measures would be taken, helps loosen this underperforming group altogether. Lastly, and perhaps my favorite factor outside of Thompson's inherent skill and talent, is that he should rightly feel annoyed at being left off Team USA's initial roster for the Four Nations Face Off tournament. These top-notch players are a competitive and proud bunch. You can bet your bottom buck Thompson will want to prove worthy of serving as an injury substitute, should it come to that by February.
David Pastrnak Regular Season Total Goals Over 33.5 (-150): Sure, it's been a disappointing run so far, but do we really expect Pastrnak to score fewer than 34 goals in a full season for the first time since he banged out 15 as a 19-year-old in 51 games back in 2015-16? Despite his measly 11 through 32 contests, that total is hard to fathom from someone who finished seventh in scoring last year and second only to Connor McDavid (64) with 61 goals the season previous. Fortunately, there's evidence to suggest a positive turnaround should be in order, coincidentally or not, under Jim Montgomery replacement Joe Sacco.
First of all, Pastrnak's 8.66% shooting percentage is not only a career-low, but it also falls well under his 11-year average of 13.7%. According to Evolving Hockey, the sniper's individual expected goals value of 13.33ixG further suggests he's endured some bad luck to date. We can draw additional comfort from the Bruins' star forward playing his best game of the season this past Saturday, collecting a goal and three assists in a decisive 5-1 win over the Canucks. A self-described goal-scorer (no argument here), Pastrnak himself admits he hasn't been getting his usual looks. They'll some soon enough.
Featured game
New York Islanders at Carolina Hurricanes
7:30 p.m. ET, Lenovo Center, Raleigh, North Carolina
- Islanders (+1.5, -135), +190 money line
- Hurricanes (-1.5, +115), -225 money line
- Total 5.5: (Over -115, Under -105)
After the Islanders nearly blew a 5-1 lead to Chicago in the third period last Thursday, head coach Patrick Roy ripped his club publicly, heatedly, and deservedly. In response, the team lost 5-3 to those same Blackhawks three days later in a contest in which forward Mathew Barzal and defender Adam Pelech made their anticipated returns. A special teams mess, the Islanders have the NHL's worst power play (12.2%) and least effective penalty kill (64.7% all season/58.6% in the past month). Imagine if they weren't the least-penalized team in the league?
Since the last week of November, a very-busy Ilya Sorokin (backup Semyon Varlamov remains hurt) has floated a .888 SV% and 3.01 GAA, which includes a 29-save shutout over the broken Buffalo Sabres. Matters are not trending nicely for the club at present.
Over in Carolina, while he has strung together several wins in a row, goalie Pyotr Kochetkov has yet to lose two straight this season. That pattern suggests a victory is in order after the club's current No. 1 surrendered a pair in last Friday's 3-0 to the red-hot Senators. Of Kochetkov's 12 victories this year, 10 have been by a margin of at least two goals. Toss in the longer rest between starts, plus the revenge factor inspired by his recent 4-3 loss to the Islanders, and Kochetkov should be in prime fighting shape back home (where he's only lost twice). Take the Hurricanes at -1.5 for +115.
Islanders Injury Notes: Forward Bo Horvat remains day-to-day ahead of Tuesday's contest, while Anthony Duclair could return to action after suffering a lower-body injury on Oct. 19.
As for appealing player props, give me Andrei Svechnikov Total Power Play Points Over 0.5 (+250). With 13 power-play points on the season, the Hurricanes' shots leader has been a little quieter in that special teams department of late. One exception being when he faced the Islanders 10 days ago and scored two power-play goals on seven shots. The sniper is due and playing a team against which he has enjoyed recent success. I'd also favor Svechnikov Total Shots On Goal Over 2.5 (+180) if the number wasn't so unrewarding.
Shayne Gostisbehere Total Power Play Points Over 0.5 (+225) is also worth hearty consideration. A member of the top unit along with Svechnikov, the offensive-defenseman leads all other NHL blueliners with 17 on the season, including two assists with the extra skater against the Islanders the other night.
For the number, I appreciate Anders Lee Total Shots On Goal Over 2.5 (+135). Averaging almost exactly three shots on net per game all season, Lee fired just the one in each of the past two contests against Chicago. The club's shots leader should feel sufficiently jazzed to fire more on net in Carolina after what hasn't been a great week.
Only the Edmonton Oilers are averaging more total shots on net than the Hurricanes this year. Isles defender Alexander Romanov blocked seven of them against Carolina in the last meeting. So think about siding with Romanov Total Blocked Shots Over 2.5 (+110).
Also, keep an eye on whether Duclair makes his healthy return against the Hurricanes after losing almost two months to a lower-body injury. The dynamic forward has historically displayed a penchant for making an immediate impression when joining a new team, or returning to action following an injury-induced break. If Duclair is playing, and there's an attractive number offered on Over 0.5 points, I'm all over it.br/]
