Browns-Jets Thursday night: NFL betting odds, picks, tips
Week 17 kicks off with the Cleveland Browns hosting the New York Jets.
So what is worth betting? And what should you avoid?
Betting analysts Eric Moody, Anita Marks and Aaron Schatz are here to provide their thoughts.
Note: Odds by ESPN BET.
Jets at Browns (-7.5, 34.5). How are you betting this game?
Moody: I'm backing the Browns (-7.5) to cover the spread at home against the Jets. With Trevor Siemian under center, Cleveland's defense will give New York's offense trouble. With the fewest total yards allowed per game, the Browns defense is talented enough to take receiverGarrett Wilson away and stack the box against running backBreece Hall. Due to an abundance of offensive line injuries, Cleveland has relied more on quarterbackJoe Flacco and the passing game in each of his four starts. In those games, the Browns are 3-1 against the spread. Also, it is worth noting that the Jets defense has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game.
Schatz: My preference here is to bet under 34.5. These are two of the top three defenses in the league by DVOA. Flacco has played well so far for the Browns but his last couple of years of performance probably tell us more about his future performance than the small sample size of a couple of good games in Cleveland. I expect both of these teams to run the ball more which should slow things down and lead to a low score.
Marks: Jets UNDER 12.5 total points. The Jets have the worst offense in the league and will face the best defense in the league -- especially at home, where they are holding teams to 10 PPG. The Browns make a pre-postseason statement here, with their top five pressure rate and defense. The Jets offensive production on the road is anemic; in the last four games, they've scored 0, 6, 12 and 13 points.
Flacco has come out of nowhere to play well and lead the Browns. Do you see that continuing against the tough Jets' defense?
Schatz: No!The Jets pass defense is excellent. In particular, they rank sixth in DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers, so Amari Cooper is probably not getting 200 yards again. Flacco's standard stats have been impressive but he's only got 45.9 QBR. The story is a lot more fun than the underlying play.
What's your favorite prop bet on Thursday?
Moody: David Njoku OVER 49.5 receiving yards. Joe Flacco and Njoku have an undeniable rapport. Because Cooper has a tough matchup against the Jets' cornerbacks, Njoku should have a huge game. The veteran tight end has surpassed 49.5 receiving yards in five of his last seven games. Over that time frame, Njoku has also averaged 10.0 targets per game. This season, tight ends are averaging 9.3 yards per reception against the Jets.
Schatz: Elijah Moore UNDER 31.5 receiving yards. The Jets are hard on No. 1 receivers but they're even harder on other wide receivers. For example, they allow just 23 opponent-adjusted yards per game to the opposing No. 2 receiver, and just 21 yards per game to the other wide receivers after that. Moore has less than 20 yards in each of the last two games and I don't think the Jets are falling for his gimmick plays and screens. The Browns are more likely to get yardage with Njoku or their running backs.
Marks: Flacco OVER 35.5 Total Passing Attempts (-130). Stefanski loves for Flacco to toss the rock. The Browns throw the ball more than any team in the NFL. Flacco has 40 pass attempts in all of his starts, expect more of the same.
Is there anything else you're playing on Thursday?
Moody: Njoku to score a touchdown. Flacco has attempted 40 or more passes in each of his four starts. Why wouldn't the Browns leverage Njoku in this matchup considering one of the Jets' strengths is their secondary? Only one team has allowed more touchdowns to tight ends than New York. Njoku has scored a touchdown in three consecutive games.
Marks: Njoku to score a touchdown. Flacco has thrown four touchdowns to Njoku. Cooper will have Sauce Gardner to deal with, and the Jets have allowed 16 touchdown passes, eight of which have gone to tight ends.
