Projected 2020 NFL draft order: Who has the No. 1 pick?
The Miami Dolphins will own the Nos. 1, 9 and 21 picks in the 2020 NFL draft, according to the 1-32 draft order projections from the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI).
The Dolphins just traded away cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Steelers to add another first-round pick, and they already had an extra first-rounder after trading Laremy Tunsil.
Each week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model's ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the record the model believes the teams will have after 16 games, and the order is based on each team's average draft position in the simulations.
Check out the full projection below (updated Tuesday, after all Week 2 games):
1. Miami Dolphins (0-2)
Average draft position:1.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 61.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 95.3%
2. New York Giants (0-2)
Average draft position: 5.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 8.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 56.8%
3. Cincinnati Bengals (0-2)
Average draft position: 7.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 6.3%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 46.6%
4. New York Jets (0-2)
Average draft position: 8.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick:4.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 38%
5. Washington Redskins (0-2)
Average draft position: 8.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 38%
6. Arizona Cardinals (0-1-1)
Average draft position: 8.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick:33.8%
7. Carolina Panthers (0-2)
Average draft position: 8.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 33.5%
8. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2)
Average draft position: 9.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 31.3%
9. Miami Dolphins (from 0-2 PIT)
Average draft position:9.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 1.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 28.2%
10. Oakland Raiders (1-1)
Average draft position:10.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 1.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 25.1%
11. Denver Broncos (0-2)
Average draft position:10.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 24.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 57.5%
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)
Average draft position: 12.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 15.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 44.9%
13. Cleveland Browns (1-1)
Average draft position: 15.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 6.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 26.4%
14. Detroit Lions (1-0-1)
Average draft position: 16.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 21.2%
15. Oakland Raiders (from 1-1CHI)
Average draft position: 16.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 4.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick:19.7%
16. Buffalo Bills (2-0)
Average draft position: 18.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 12.5%
17. Atlanta Falcons (1-1)
Average draft position: 15.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 13.7%
18. Los Angeles Chargers (1-1)
Average draft position: 18.9
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 12.3%
19. Seattle Seahawks (2-0)
Average draft position: 19.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 8.3%
20. Indianapolis Colts (1-1)
Average draft position: 19.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 12.7%
21. Miami Dolphins (from 1-1HOU)
Average draft position: 19.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 10.8%
22. Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)
Average draft position: 20.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 3.7%
23. Tennessee Titans (1-1)
Average draft position: 21.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick:7.1%
24. Minnesota Vikings (1-1)
Average draft position: 21.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 5%
25. New Orleans Saints (1-1)
Average draft position: 21.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 6.3%
26. Green Bay Packers (2-0)
Average draft position: 22.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 3.4%
27. San Francisco 49ers (2-0)
Average draft position: 24.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 1.2%
28. Dallas Cowboys (2-0)
Average draft position: 25.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 1.3%
29. Baltimore Ravens (2-0)
Average draft position: 25.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 1.3%
30. Kansas City Chiefs (2-0)
Average draft position: 28.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%
31. Los Angeles Rams (2-0)
Average draft position: 26.8
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick:0.3%
32. New England Patriots (2-0)
Average draft position: 29.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%
