The matchups that will determine the 2024 WNBA playoff race
The WNBA is back, and before we know it, the playoffs will be, too.
With the season resuming Thursday night and all 12 teams back in action by Saturday, it's full steam ahead for the league in its final month of the regular season.
Six teams seem pretty safe bets to make the playoffs: the New York Liberty, Connecticut Sun, Minnesota Lynx, Seattle Storm, Las Vegas Aces and Phoenix Mercury. Below them in the standings, the Indiana Fever and Chicago Sky are currently slotted at seventh and eighth, but the ninth-place Atlanta Dream aren't too far behind.
While some teams will be focused on snagging one of the eight playoff spots, others will compete over seedings. The top four seeds host best-of-three first-round series, then the higher seeds host the best-of-five semifinals and finals.
There are a lot of games to be played between now and Sept. 19, the final day of the regular season -- which means a lot can change regarding seedings and even teams' postseason chances. Still, as play gets into full swing this weekend, here are some of the matchups that will impact the playoff race.
New York Liberty-Las Vegas Aces
Aug. 17 in Las Vegas (4 p.m. ET, CBS); Sept. 8 in New York (4 p.m. ET, ESPN)
The Aces (16-8) don't look as invincible as they did last year, but two battles between the league's two superteams, and a rematch of the 2023 WNBA Finals, cannot be missed. Ten Paris Olympians representing four countries will take the court Saturday in their second meeting of the season. The Liberty (22-4) won by eight in the first meeting, when Aces star point guard Chelsea Gray(foot) wasn't available.
All eyes will be on these remaining clashes. Will the Liberty take control of the rivalry and cement themselves as the championship favorites? Or will the Aces show that with Gray back in tow, their three-peat hopes are alive and well?
Phoenix Mercury-Chicago Sky
Aug. 18 in Phoenix (9 p.m. ET); Sept. 15 in Chicago (6 p.m. ET)
One of the biggest surprises of the offseason was 2021 WNBA Finals MVPKahleah Copper'strade request out of Chicago to Phoenix. Copper faced her old team for the first time on Thursday and will see the Sky twice more before the regular season ends. The franchises, 3 games apart in the standings, are both led by first-year head coaches (Nate Tibbetts in Phoenix, Teresa Weatherspoon in Chicago) and have something to prove. The Mercury were lackluster in the first half of the season with a 13-12 record, but still have the talent and, with better health, could compete for a championship. The playoff prospects for the 10-15 Sky, meanwhile, got murkier with the trade of Marina Mabrey. Entirely counting out their guard-post tandem of Chennedy Carter-- who did not play in Thursday's loss against Phoenix -- and Angel Reese,however, would be unwise.
Minnesota Lynx-Las Vegas Aces
Aug. 21 in Las Vegas (9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN); Aug. 23 in Minneapolis (9:30 p.m. ET, ION)
Few, maybe no one, predicted Las Vegas would be fifth in the standings at the Olympic break. Fortunately for the Aces, they have fared much better with Chelsea Gray back in the lineup, going 10-2 since her return on June 19. But the two-time defending champs must do some work to secure home-court advantage for at least one round of the postseason -- Vegas was the No. 1 seed in both 2022 and 2023 when it won its titles. Beating top teams, including Minnesota, would help the Aces in that effort.
That said, the Lynx have plenty on the line themselves. They received mixed preseason expectations after not having the splashiest of offseasons. But with Napheesa Collier-- who may have been the MVP front-runner if A'ja Wilson wasn't having a historically dominant season-- on the court, Minnesota could challenge the Aces and return to its first Finals since 2017, when it won its fourth championship in seven years.
Connecticut Sun-New York Liberty
Aug. 24 in New York (7 p.m. ET)
The series between the top two teams in the standings has been lopsided, with the Liberty winning the first three matchups and accounting for half of Connecticut's total losses. Can the Sun (18-6) finally get one against one of last season's WNBA finalists? Connecticut is 1-10 against this superteam iteration of New York dating back to last season. Realistically, if it wants to win the franchise's first WNBA title this year, Connecticut will have to crack the code on the Liberty. We'll see whether Mabrey, acquired via trade right before the break, can help the Sun move the needle.
New York is currently three games ahead of the Sun and will look to strengthen its stronghold on the top spot to clinch home-court advantage through the entirety of the playoffs.
Indiana Fever-Atlanta Dream
Aug. 26 in Atlanta (7:30 p.m. ET, NBA TV); Sept. 8 in Indiana (4 p.m. ET)
It is quite possible Indiana (11-15), Chicago (10-15) and Atlanta (7-17) end up fighting over the final two playoff spots, giving this pair of contests additional significance. Atlanta, which made it back to the playoffs last season for the first time since 2018, could be poised for a late push with 2022 No. 1 pick Rhyne Howard (ankle) and point guard Jordin Canada (hand) both returning from injury.
But if the Fever play like they have since the middle of June -- when Caitlin Clark settled into the league and the team chemistry clicked -- they won't be any easy opponent, either. The first of these games could determine which team has hit the ground running following the Olympic break.
Also of note: Indiana, which is aiming for its first postseason berth since 2016, is currently up 2-0 on the season series.
Indiana Fever-Chicago Sky
Aug. 30 in Chicago (7:30 p.m. ET, ION)
The first three meetings between star rookies Clark and Reese delivered. Indiana took the first two games, Chicago had the edge in the third, and all three were decided by a combined 10 points. This fourth and final regular-season clash may have even more juice than the others: The Fever and Sky are within a half-game of each other in the standings following Chicago's loss Thursday.
Clark and Reese have downplayed their on-court rivalry, but this is also their final head-to-head matchup before a competitive Rookie of the Year race is decided. Regardless of the ROY result, both have shown how impactful they will be for their franchises and in the league well beyond this year.
Seattle Storm-Connecticut Sun
Sept. 1 in Connecticut (1 p.m. ET, NBA TV); Sept. 3 in Connecticut (7 p.m. ET)
Seattle beat Connecticut the only time the two teams played each other in the first half of the season -- giving the Sun their only back-to-back losses this summer. Both defensive-minded teams will look to get their units in top shape come playoff time, and they still have levels they can unlock offensively. Going up against stiff competition in early September is a great opportunity to fine-tune things heading into the postseason. The Storm, who revamped their roster in the offseason with the additions of Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins-Smith, are poised to return to the playoffs this season after missing out in 2023. With a strong showing in Connecticut, they could improve on their currently slated fourth-place seeding.
Dallas Wings-Indiana Fever
Sept. 1 in Dallas (4 p.m. ET, NBA TV); Sept. 15 in Indiana (3 p.m. ET, NBA TV)
The Wings concluded the first half of the season with a bang when they beat the Fever in a 101-93 thriller, an exclamation point to an otherwise disappointing 6-19 start that had them at the bottom of the league standings.
The version of Dallas that'll take the floor after the Olympic break will be much stronger: Satou Sabally (shoulder) and Jaelyn Brown (illness) return Friday, with the former suiting up for the Wings for the first time this season, and Maddy Siegrist (finger) is expected to play Tuesday at New York.
At full strength, the Wings hope they'll look closer to the version that finished fourth in the league standings last year and made it to the semifinals. It'll take a furious rally to return to the postseason, but wins against the Fever would help.
Minnesota Lynx-New York Liberty
Sept. 15 in New York (3 p.m. ET)
The Liberty haven't lost very often this season, but the Lynx have gotten the better of them -- twice if you include the Commissioner's Cup championship game. New York avenged that loss a week later, and the two will meet once more on the final weekend of the regular season.
Keep an eye on Jonquel Jones for this one: The 2021 WNBA MVP is having one of the best seasons of her career, but two of her eight single-digit scoring games this season came against the Lynx, including the Commissioner's Cup final.
Las Vegas Aces-Seattle Storm
Sept. 17 in Seattle (10 p.m. ET, NBA TV)
If the regular season ended today, the Storm and Aces would play each other in the first round as the fourth and fifth seeds -- a prospect that seems unfair to both teams, and to basketball fans writ large. Seedings could shuffle between now and the actual end of the regular season, but this mid-September tilt will still be one to watch as both make a final push for the top four playoff seeds.
