What can the Jets recoup for quarterback Zach Wilson?

FLORHAM PARK, N.J. -- The New York Jets are the only team in the common-draft era (since 1967) to draft two quarterbacks with top-three picks in a three-year span --Sam Darnold in 2018, Zach Wilson in 2021.

Darnold, on his third team, is preparing for Super Bowl LVIII as the San Francisco 49ers' backup. Wilson is preparing for a change of address.

Repeating the pattern, the Jets are expected to trade Wilson in the coming weeks as they look to upgrade the QB2 position behind Aaron Rodgers. There's a "high probability" of that happening, general manager Joe Douglas said recently, triggering two questions:

Who's interested? What might he fetch in a trade?

ESPN reached out to three personnel executives, one scout and two assistant coaches from other teams to gauge Wilson's value. The consensus is Wilson could bring back a sixth- or seventh-round pick (or perhaps a swap of middle-round picks) from a team willing to take a chance on him as a backup due to his draft pedigree.

"Perhaps a team out there felt stronger about him pre-draft, and that could influence how they value him," one personnel executive said.

"(Otherwise), maybe they could ask for something on Day 3 -- a mid-Day 3" -- meaning a pick in the fifth/sixth-round range. The scout said the Jets could get a seventh-round pick "if they're lucky." One of the assistant coaches said, "I'd give up a two-week stay at a Best Western. I'm not a fan."

Another personnel executive suggested the Jets seek a 2025 conditional pick, based on playing time -- i.e. a fourth rounder if Wilson plays 50% of the offensive snaps. This protects them if he gets on the field and produces next season. The Jets "will never get the value they want" in a straight-up trade, the executive said.

It would be highly unusual--- and embarrassing -- if the Jets can't find a trading partner and simply release him. The last top-10 quarterback to get cut by the team that drafted him was Robert Griffin III, selected No. 2 overall in 2012 by Washington and released after four years.

Since then, the only other first-round quarterbacks to be cut by their original team were Johnny Manziel (Cleveland Browns, 22nd pick, in 2014), Paxton Lynch (Denver Broncos, 26th, 2016) and Dwayne Haskins (Washington Commanders, 15th, 2019).

Because of the demand for the position, there's usually interest in depreciated quarterbacks. They were high picks because of top-shelf traits, and some coaches like the challenge of reclamation projects.

"The only trade value for him is his arm talent, meaning he can make all the throws," the other assistant coach said of Wilson. "But the biggest thing, he has to become more mature and be consistent in everything, especially his decision making. There were flashes this year, but obviously not enough."

Replacing the injured Rodgers, Wilson went 4-7 as a starter, with eight touchdown passes, seven interceptions, 2,271 yards and a 60.1% completion rate. His Total QBR (30.6) ranked 30th out of 30 qualified passers. Over the last three seasons, he's 35th out of 36 in Total QBR, ahead of the Carolina Panthers' Bryce Young (33.3), who was a rookie in 2023.

The player drafted one spot after Wilson, quarterback Trey Lance, was traded last August for a 2024 fourth-round pick, with the 49ers sending him to the Dallas Cowboys. Unlike Wilson, who struggled consistently over three years, Lance started four games for the 49ers, allowing him to maintain at least a fraction of his value. The 49ers didn't get anything close to their original investment -- it cost them three first rounders to trade up -- but they were able to salvage something respectable because Lance wasn't a complete washout.

Typically, the value for a backup quarterback is a sixth- or seventh-round pick. Consider some of the trades in recent years:

• Nick Mullens, from the Las Vegas Raiders to Minnesota Vikings for a conditional seventh
• Jarrett Stidham, from the New England Patriots to the Raiders for a sixth
• Case Keenum, from the Browns to the Buffalo Bills for a seventh
• Joe Flacco, from the Philadelphia Eagles to the Jets for a conditional sixth
• Gardner Minshew, from the Jacksonville Jaguars to the Eagles for a conditional sixth

None of them were high draft picks. When a top pick flames out, his team usually can recoup some value. For instance: Carson Wentz was traded twice, from the Eagles to the Indianapolis Colts to the Commanders, each time fetching a Day 2 draft pick.

When the Jets dealt Darnold to the Panthers in 2021, they received three picks, including a second rounder, but he went there as the starting quarterback. No team views Wilson in that light. His salary also could be an issue for some teams. He's due to make a guaranteed $5.45 million, including a roster bonus, in the final year of his rookie contract. It could become a negotiating point in any trade talks.

Trades can't become official until March 13, the start of the league year, but agreements can be reached now. Quarterbacks have been dealt before the Super Bowl (see: Matthew Stafford and Alex Smith). Chances are, Wilson won't find a landing spot until the top end of the quarterback market is settled in March.

Potential destination?

Hall of Fame quarterback Steve Young, who met Wilson years ago through their BYU connections and became an unofficial advisor during the draft process, hopes Wilson can land with an innovative coach who can maximize his potential. The ideal spot, Young said, is the Los Angeles Rams.

"Go with Sean McVay, follow (Matthew) Stafford and just sit there and watch the magic, and see if you can pick it up," Young said on the Adam Schefter Podcast. "If you can, you can be one of the best because you have the talent for it."

In Los Angeles, Wilson would be reunited with offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur, who held the same position with the Jets in 2021 and 2022.

That relationship didn't produce results on the field, but McVay runs the show in LA.

Young also mentioned the 49ers, Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs, Green Bay Packers, Miami Dolphins, Eagles and Baltimore Ravens as quarterback-friendly offenses suited for Wilson. Based on current depth charts, the Rams, Vikings and Eagles might make the most sense because they could be in the QB2 market. Schematically, he's already familiar with the Rams and Vikings systems, both of which employ the Shanahan version of the West Coast offense.

"He needs to get to one of those spots," Young said, referring to the eight teams. "He needs to join forces. If you're going to get anything out of Zach Wilson in the future, he needs to get away from these places that aren't quarterback-friendly."