AccuWeather: Very warm, PM thunderstorm ahead of extreme heat

AccuWeather forecast for NYC, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut

ByEyewitness News WABC logo

NEW YORK (WABC) -- The big story heading into the upcoming holiday weekend is intense heat, with "feels like" temperatures expected to approach 110 degrees.

The forecast shows a clear arc to this heat wave, projected to last about five days, peaking on Thursday and Friday. During that stretch, heat index values could climb between 105 and 110 degrees. An excessive or extreme heat watch has been extended from Wednesday through Saturday, underscoring just how serious conditions could become.

Despite the heat dominating the forecast, there will also be chances for thunderstorms. In this type of hot and humid environment, isolated, slow-moving storms capable of heavy downpours can develop.

Tuesday's storm chances look very limited, but conditions become more favorable on Wednesday, when a cluster of storms could pass through in the morning followed by an isolated storm later in the day. Even then, most of the day should remain dry.

Thursday appears to be the one exception, with very little storm activity expected. However, the threat ramps back up on Friday afternoon and continues into the Fourth of July. Independence Day is shaping up to be hot and steamy, with temperatures near 95 degrees and "feels like" readings around 100. There is also a risk of afternoon or evening thunderstorms, which could potentially interfere with fireworks displays, though the exact timing and placement of any storms will not become clear until closer to the holiday.

Temperatures will surge toward 90 degrees as humidity climbs. While not overwhelming yet, it will be enough to push "feels like" temperatures into the low to mid-90s. An isolated afternoon thunderstorm is possible.

For boaters and beachgoers, winds will shift from southwest to south at 5 to 15 miles per hour, with occasional gusts topping 20 in the afternoon. Wave heights will range between two and three feet. Water temperatures are generally in the mid to upper 60s, though some areas, particularly on the south shore of Long Island, are seeing pockets in the low 70s. Rip current risk is moderate, so caution is advised.

Air quality is expected to range from moderate to unhealthy, while pollen levels remain low to medium. The UV index is extremely high at a level of 10, making sun protection essential. Anyone spending extended time outdoors should apply sunscreen frequently.

Overnight Tuesday, temperatures will only dip to around 73 degrees as humidity continues to build. From there, a stretch of extreme heat takes hold, highlighted by multiple days of hazy, hot, and humid conditions beginning Wednesday. Storm chances will be highest on Wednesday and again on Friday into July 4, with Thursday offering a brief lull.

Notably, the city could see three consecutive nights with temperatures staying in the 80s, something that would tie a record if it occurs on Saturday. Even as the weekend progresses, conditions remain steamy, though Sunday may bring a slight break from the most extreme heat. By Monday, temperatures are expected to ease back into the upper 80s.