Will the gender gap decide the 2024 election?
Men and women have been voting differently in presidential elections for decades. But could the gender gap be the deciding factor in this year's razor-thin race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump?
The final ABC News/Ipsos poll before Election Day, released on Sunday, found the gender gap among all likely voters to be 16 points. Harris had a 11-point advantage among women, 53% to 42%, while Trump had a 5-point advantage among men, 50% to 45%.
The gender gap has averaged 19 points in presidential exit polls since 1996. Some observers, though, believe it could reach a new level in 2024.
"With a woman versus a man at the top of the ticket and with the prominence of the abortion issue in the wake of the Dobbs decision, we could have a historically large gender gap approaching a gender chasm this year," Whit Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster, told ABC News.
The formula to success for Harris would be to win women by more than she loses men. The reverse is true for Trump.
"When you're talking about dead heat races in seven swing states, anything could be the deciding factor," Ayres said.
-ABC News' Alexandra Hutzler
