Betting buzz: Giants' kicker injury dooms field goal prop bettors
Everything that happens in sports has some additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective.From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.
Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans with a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.
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Sept. 16:Giants' kicker injury dooms field goal prop bettors
David Purdum: Veteran New York Giants kicker Graham Gano is a legend in some betting circles, remembered as the man who made a field goal that cost a sportsbook $20 million in Week 2 of the last season.
On Sunday, Gano was again a central character in another betting drama with a less happy ending for bettors.
Last week, FanDuel offered a prop bet on every team making a field goal during the early and afternoon slate at 60-1. The bet was recommended by a popular gambling forum known as "Goldboys," spurring action on the prop.
Every team made a field goal in Sunday afternoon's 13 games, except one -- the Giants, who saw Gano injure his hamstring attempting to make a tackle on the opening kickoff against the Washington Commanders.
Punter Jamie Gillan took over place-kicking duties for Gano and missed an extra point after the Giants' first touchdown. The Giants elected to go for two after their other touchdowns and passed on a 39-yard field goal that would've put them in the lead with two minutes to play, choosing to instead go for it on 4th and 4.
The owner of the Goldboys Discord, a bettor who goes by J.D., won big on the same field-goal prop bet in Week 2 of last season, when every team made a kick in the 12 afternoon games. The odds on the prop that week were 200-1 at FanDuel and generated enough action to put the sportsbook on the hook for more than $20 million. Gano made the final field goal, a 34-yarder against Arizona, resulting in one of the FanDuel's biggest losses on an NFL long-shot prop. It was only the second time in the last 20 seasons that every team had made a field goal in the afternoon slate, and it produced the biggest score J.D.'s betting career -- $316,800 -- for the owner of Goldboys.
J.D. recommended the bet to his followers again this week, in part, he admits, because of nostalgia.
"We had to give it back out since we won it back in Week 2 last year," J.D. told ESPN on Monday. "However, the odds were cut drastically from last year, so it wasn't as big as push. It's a shame the guy who won it for us last year is the one who crushed us this year."
Sept. 15: Raiders, Buccaneers continue big underdog winning streak
Doug Greenberg:For the second time in as many weeks, the biggest underdog of the week won straight up over their heavily favored opponent. This time, it was the Las Vegas Raiders (+8.5) taking down the Baltimore Ravens on the road, 26-23.
The game was the third-largest outright upset according to the spread in Ravens history. The Raiders were down by 10 points on two separate occasions in the contest, with their longest in-game odds peaking at 20-1 around 3:40 p.m. ET.
Raiders-Ravens was the most-bet game of the day at ESPN BET with 69.3% of bets and 56.1% of handle on Baltimore to cover the spread. The Ravens attracted the most money of any team to cover at Bet MGM -- though the book also reports that Las Vegas (+350) was among the most-bet moneyline underdogs by tickets.
Another popular underdog on the moneyline was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who took down the Detroit Lions straight up as 7.5-point dogs. Combined with the New England Patriots outright win over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1, 2024 marks the first time since 2003 that three favorites of more than seven points have lost in the first two weeks of the season, per ESPN Stats & Information.
Sept. 13: Ravens, Chargers, Jonathan Taylor among most popular NFL bets
David Purdum: As the football weekend approaches, here's a quick overview of which teams and players have received the most support from bettors at sportsbooks this week:
Baltimore Ravens -8.5 (vs. Las Vegas Raiders): The Ravens have garnered more betting interest than any other team this week at multiple sportsbooks. They're tops at DraftKings in the number of bets and the amount of money wagered. At BetRivers, there had been more bets on the Baltimore money line -- the odds to win the game straight up -- than any other NFL bet on the board.
Los Angeles Chargers -5 (at Carolina Panthers): The Chargers minus the points is the most popular spread bet at BetMGM, by number of bets and by amount of money wagered, and the second-most popular at DraftKings in both categories behind the Ravens
Entering the week, the Chargers entered the week as a consensus 4.5-point favorite. The line grew as high as -6.5 on Tuesday, before settling back at -5 as of Friday.
Of note at BetRivers' sportsbooks: While the Chargers have attracted the bulk of the spread bets (89%), the underdog Panthers have garnered 81% of the money that had been wagered as of Friday. In fact, more money had been bet on the Panthers than any other NFL side entering the weekend.
Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor Anytime TD: Taylor has been the most popular pick to score a touchdown of any player offered at ESPN BET. He's listed at even money at ESPN BET to score in Sunday's game against the Green Bay Packers.
Sept 12: Dolphins drawing heavier betting action despite recent issues with Bills
Doug Greenberg: For the first time since Tua Tagovailoa's very first start against the Buffalo Bills, the Miami Dolphins are favored in a game against their division rivals, showing a -2.5 point spread at home for "Thursday Night Football".
In that initial matchup, the final game of the 2020 regular season for both teams, the Dolphins were 3-point home favorites. The Bills would go on to win that one 56-26 for a cover margin of 33 points, the largest in the seven games the two sides have played against each other in the Tagovailoa era.
Buffalo has largely dominated the series, having been a favorite in every game since that first one, prior to Thursday's contest, and posting records of 4-2-1 against the spread and 6-1 straight up. The Bills also show an average cover margin of 11.9 in the series. Miami's only covers over that period were both in the 2022 season when they won a game straight up as 4-point underdogs and covered a 7-point underdog spread in the other. The Bills covered both of last season's meetings and QB Josh Allen is 11-2 outright against the Dolphins including the playoffs.
Still, that hasn't stopped bettors from supporting the Dolphins' spread en masse for "Thursday Night Football." At ESPN BET, Miami -2.5 has 58.3% of the bets and 71.9% of the handle, which may have played a role in moving the line from its opener at a pick 'em to its current position. BetMGM also reports 54% of the tickets and 61% of the money on the Dolphins spread.
"Bettors are all over the Dolphins tonight; a Bills cover is ideal for the sportsbook," said BetMGM senior trading manager Tristan Davis. "Additionally, we are cheering for anyone except for Josh Allen and Tyreek Hill to find the end zone."
The sportsbook reports big liability on Allen for an anytime touchdown, while Hill has taken a lot of money to score the first touchdown. ESPN BET also says that Allen is its most-bet anytime TD scorer, as well as the most popular pick for non-TD props (over 250+ passing yards).
While it's probably a much less significant amount of total handle, Buffalo is getting some love as a small underdog on the moneyline. ESPN BET has 66.9% of its bets on the Bills to win, while BetMGM reports 67%.
Sept 10: Allen makes huge MVP odds jump after Week 1
Greenberg: After one week of NFL play, two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes continues to stand atop the MVP oddsboard after completing 71% of his passes for 291 yards, a touchdown and an interception in the Kansas City Chiefs' win over the Baltimore Ravens. His odds to win the league's highest individual honor for a third time moved from +500 before the season to +375 at ESPN BET.
But by far the biggest mover for MVP betting after Week 1 was Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. The 28-year-old, who is seeking his first MVP honor in his seventh NFL season, put up a monster game in Buffalo's 34-28 win over the Arizona Cardinals, passing for 232 yards and two touchdowns, while rushing for 39 yards and two more scores.
The performance moved his MVP odds from +1000 prior to Sunday's game to +550, placing him right behind Mahomes and allowing him to leapfrog C.J. Stroud (+850) and Joe Burrow (+1600, down from his opener of +900). Jalen Hurts (+1100), Brock Purdy (+1600) and Lamar Jackson (+1600) round out the top MVP candidates.
Ahead of last Sunday, Allen ranked fourth in MVP betting, taking 7% of bets and handle at ESPN BET. Since kickoff on Sunday, Allen has taken a leading 16% of tickets and 25% of money, which likely played a factor in his odds shortening. At BetMGM, Allen now has 8.5% of the handle, behind only Mahomes (14.1%), Stroud (8.8%) and Jared Goff (8.8%).
Goff didn't have the flashiest of opening weeks, but it was enough to get his Detroit Lions a primetime win against his former team, the Los Angeles Rams. Goff sits at +1800 after opening at +4000 and has taken 8% of bets and 7% of handle since Sunday midday. He's also firmly in the top five overall for tickets and money at DraftKings.
Two other quarterbacks who saw increased action off of strong Week 1s include Dak Prescott (+1800) and Baker Mayfield (+7500). Since the start of play on Sunday, the Dallas Cowboys QB has taken 20% of handle, behind Allen and Mahomes at 22%, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers signal caller has taken 14% of bets, behind only Allen.
