Will it be a cool summer? Here's the 'Weather or Not' long-range forecast

NEW YORK (WABC) -- Summer has officially begun, so does that mean relentless heat and humidity are about to crank up?

In recent years, it has, but this summer could be different, at least in the New York region and the Eastern part of the nation.

Initially, our lead long-range forecaster at AccuWeather, Paul Pastelok, was looking at a warmer-than-average summer, running two to three degrees above the normal. But in May and June, we've been stuck in a generally cool (and quite dry) pattern, and he's leaning now toward the idea of cooler-than-normal temperatures persisting through the summer, but at least some relief from the dry conditions.

Of course, that doesn't mean we won't have shots of heat, as well as 90-degree days coming. But Paul explains to Lee Goldberg in the latest episode of "Weather or Not" why his thinking is changing, and how his forecast is a battle between computer models and historical "analogs," previous years like 2009 and 1972 that were similar to this one.

What about hurricanes? We've already had three storms this year - including one in January! The Atlantic basin is still warmer than usual, and that could lead to more activities.

Lee breaks it all down in this edition of "Weather or Not."

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