AccuWeather Alert: Storms, some heavy

AccuWeather forecast for NYC, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut

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NEW YORK (WABC) -- After a stretch of beautiful weather, changes are on the way as the tri-state area returns to a more typical summer pattern, with showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday, bringing the potential for flooding and damaging winds.

An AccuWeather Alert Day is in effect Thursday, and the National Weather Service has issued a flood watch for New York City and much of the Tri-State area. Skies will feature mixed clouds with intervals of sunshine, but showers and thunderstorms could develop at any time during the day.

The greatest concern will be Thursday afternoon and evening, although some showers and thunderstorms could begin as early as Thursday morning, especially from New York City westward.

The strongest storms are expected to develop during the afternoon, particularly north and west of the city. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded both level 1 and level 2 severe weather risk across the region, with the higher-risk area extending close to New York City.

Damaging winds are the primary severe weather threat, but the broader concern is flooding. Areas to the north and west are expected to be most vulnerable, though New York City, western Long Island, and Connecticut could also see heavy rainfall. Even the Jersey Shore is under a level 1 out of 4 risk for flash flooding.

Storms are expected to be around Thursday morning, followed by a possible break before another round develops with daytime heating and continues into the evening. The slow-moving nature of the storms could increase the threat of flooding while also producing pockets of strong winds, especially north and west of the city.

Thursday night will remain unsettled, with evening thunderstorms and an ongoing risk of flooding. Travelers are urged to be cautious as conditions turn muggy and mostly cloudy overnight.

Friday is trending drier as the storm system moves away. A leftover shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out through about midday, but increasing sunshine and improving conditions are expected through the afternoon.

The weekend looks much more favorable. Saturday is expected to be warm, dry and sunny with low humidity and temperatures near 80 degrees. Humidity will increase somewhat on Sunday, though not to oppressive levels. A late-day shower is possible, especially inland, but much of the day will feature a mix of sun and clouds.

Looking ahead, Monday brings a similar forecast with a mix of sun and clouds and only a slight chance for a shower. A better chance for afternoon thunderstorms returns Tuesday, followed by more clouds and scattered thundershowers Wednesday.