NJ hospitalizations would surpass April peak in worst-case scenario, predictive modeling shows

Coronavirus Update New Jersey
NEW JERSEY (WABC) -- Predictive modeling shows, in the worst-case scenario, the number of patients treated for COVID-19 in New Jersey hospitals would surpass the peak the state saw back in April, Gov. Phil Murphy said Wednesday.

The New Jersey Department of Health and the Office of Innovation created the predictive models to help officials visualize how the coronavirus pandemic may play out over the coming months.

"It is the numbers in our hospitals which are of the greatest concern and the hardest numbers, if you will, when it comes to determining the steps we need to take as a state," Murphy said.

The two models show the potential for around 8,700 patients requiring hospital care by mid-January or early February.

That would be hundreds of patients more than the state saw on April 14, when 8,270 people were being treated for COVID-19 in New Jersey hospitals.

Murphy showed the models at his briefing to encourage residents to continue to take precautions.
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Predictive modeling shows, in the worst-case scenario, the number of patients treated for COVID-19 in New Jersey hospitals would surpass the peak the state saw back in April, Gov. Phil Murphy said Wednesday.



While moderate models also developed by the two agencies show hospitalizations falling short of the mid-April peak, if the state starts trending towards the worst-case models, Murphy said he could impose more restrictions.

"As we've said, protecting the ability of our health care system to treat the ill is our paramount concern. And if the numbers begin to roll in where that ability is put into question, as is the case in these models, we will have no choice but to act," Murphy said.

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Police say a 45-year-old man and a 28-year-old woman, part of a voluntary ambulance squad, responded to that location for reports of a patient experiencing "difficult breathing."



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